Dynamic Modeling And Analysis Of Two Kinds Of Infectious Diseases

The infectious disease is a kind of disease which can be caused by various kinds of pathogens,which can spread among people,animals and animals or people and animals.Infectious diseases have been one of the main factors that threaten the survival and health of human beings and hinder the development of economy and society.In this paper,the dynamics modeling and analysis of H7N9 avian influenza and foot and mouth disease are as follows:H7N9,a kind of subgroup of influenza viruses,has lasted for over two years off and on in China.Although it has not yet aroused large-scale outbreak in human,it reappeared in the winter of 2013.According to the obtained information and literature,possible reasons to arouse recurrence of human cases can be speculated as migration of birds,temperature cycling,or reopening of live poultry trading markets.However,which one is the major driving factor is unclear.Therefore,a dynamical model combining migration of birds,temperature dependent decay rate of virus with closing trading markets is established to dig internal critical factors gave rise to H7N9 human cases reappearance,to assess the prevention and control measures,and to propose the most effective solution.By numerical analysis,it is concluded that temperature cycling may be the main driving mechanism of the periodicity of infected human cases.What's more,closing trading markets is not the main factor of the periodicity of infected human cases,but is the most effective measure to control the epidemic to be at a low level.Consequently,periodically closing trading markets is proposed to prevent and control the spread of epidemic.Considering periodicity with outbreak of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD),a mathematical model is built in the paper where the infectious rate of children and adults is periodic,then calculating the basic reproduction number of model;Furthermore,in terms of actual data of HFMD from 2010 to 2015 in China,the numerical simulation shows good agreement with yearly data with HFMD from Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention(CDC).The obtained results tell us that adults take quite great effects on HFMD spread,so disinfection for adults and publicity about harm of adults carrying virus should be reinforced,further weakening infection strength.