Prediction Of Hand-foot-mouth Disease Incidence And Analysis Of Meteorological Factors In Heilongjiang Province

There are two parts in this paper.The first one is to use the data of HFMD incidence from 2006 to 2015 to build a suitable SARIMA model and predict the incidence of HFMD in Heilongjiang Province from June to August in 2016.We can see that the incidence of HFMD in Heilongjiang Province's peak period in a year is from June to August.Estimating the number of patients in these months can also reduce error.By observing the auto correlation coefficient graph and partial auto correlation coefficient graph of the sequence,the final model we get isSARIMA?7?,1,2 1?8???7?0 1,1,?8?₁₂.SARIMA model can fit the number of HFMD patients in the prediction period accurately.It can provide scientific evidence for prevention in advance.The second one is to study the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Heilongjiang Province.We use LASSO to screen the eighteen meteorological factors and determined that the number of patients varies with the change of seasons.It is positively correlated with the highest temperature in a month,the average relative humidity,the average lowest temperature and the average days with daily precipitation greater than 0.1 mm.Finally we established the linear relationship between the number of HFMD patients in order to forecast the number of patients.