Decomposition Analysis And Comparative Study On The Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei

Collaborative development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is a major development strategy for the current state. In order to promote the coordinated development of economy in three regions, the problem of resource and environment is still attached great importance. Hebei province is a big province of energy consumption, Beijing and Tianjin is the important cities in the rapid development of the national economy,development brings serious carbon emissions, the contradiction between economic growth and energy saving and emission reduction has become increasingly prominent.Therefore, how to achieve the emission reduction commitment to reduce carbon emissions intensity has become a problem worthy of further study.On the basis of the research object, this paper analyzes the economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions in the region of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province in 1995-2013; The carbon emissions of energy activities from Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are accounted for; Selecting LMDI model as a basic method of studying decomposition analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emission in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the empirical results are analyzed and the influence factors of carbon emission in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are compared and studied; Based on the theoretical and conceptual model of IPAT, combining situation analysis and quantitative analysis method, the situation of energy consumption and carbon emission in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei of 2014-2020 are predicted; According to the research conclusion and the forecast results of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, putting forward to reasonable suggestions on energy utilization and low carbon development.The results show that the effect of economic scale and population size are the factors that promote the growth of carbon emissions, by the end of 2013, the driving effects of economic growth factor on carbon emission in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei make carbon emissions increased by 40.4278 million tons,62.1444 million tons,25.18171 million tons respectively. The cumulative contribution of the population size effect to carbon emission is 17.5216 million tons,18.2951 million tons,20.0548 million tons. The effects of energy structure and energy intensity are the restraining factors of carbon emission. The energy consumption structure of Beijing city and Tianjin city is more reasonable than that of Hebei Province, which is the reason why the energy structure effect of the two cities is stronger than that of Hebeiprovince in the inhibition of carbon emissions. Energy intensity is related to the level of energy consumption and economic development. In addition, energy intensity is also likely to be affected by energy structure, industrial structure, energy prices and other factors; According to the results of scenario prediction, in three scenarios, the total energy consumption of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are 607.4823 million tons of standard coal,335.6268 million tons of standard coal,306.5901 million tons of st andard coal respectively in 2020. Under the low carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will reach396.6375 million tons; Therefore,the paper gives the main suggestions are to gradually establish a perfect carbon trading market, and steadily promote the development of low carbon industry clusters,the long-term sustainable investment in new energy fields, etc.