Research On Emulation And Optimization Of Beijing Industrial Carbon Emission System Under The Cooperation Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

With the increasing of energy demand in China,the carbon emissions and other factors lead to the situation of ecological environment is becoming increasingly serious,which seriously hindered the sustained and rapid development of China's economy.Especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Beijing is the core of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei cooperation.In recent years,Beijing has suffered from population growth,traffic congestion,air pollution and other "urban diseases" problems.Under the background of coordinated development,the concerns about carbon emissions in energy consumption are increasing.The industrial production dominates in the energy consumption sector,and the increase of total industrial output is the main reason for the increase of total carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical value to estimate,analyze and simulate Beijing's carbon emission,which will promote the economic development of Beijing and the carbon emission reduction of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.In this paper,the methods and the models of carbon emission accounting are firstly reviewed,the basic theories of system dynamics are summarized,and the corresponding research methods are determined.Secondly,based on the energy consumption data of the industrial sectors in Beijing from 2001 to 2014,the carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure and analyze the industrial carbon emission and its proportion.The dynamics model of Beijing industrial carbon emission system is established based on the system dynamics theory.The model is used to analyze the carbon emissions of Beijing from 2010 to 2025 on the total industrial carbon emission,the industrial GDP,the total population,the energy consumption demand and the carbon emission intensity,meanwhile,the correctness,the validity and the sensitivity of the model are tested.Then,four scenario models for baseline,economic efficiency,energy saving and economysaving coordination are set up respectively by using scenario analysis method.This paper simulates the industrial carbon emissions in Beijing from 2010 to 2025 under four scenarios,the system dynamics simulation results are compared from four aspects: the population subsystem,the economic subsystem and the energy and environment subsystem.Finally,this paper selects the suitable scenarios for the industrial development of Beijing based on the simulation results,and puts forward the policy basis for the development of energy-saving emission reduction work and the industrial development.