Carbon Emission Rights Based On VaR-GARCH Model Evaluation And Prevention Of Trading Price Fluctuation Risk

Issues such as extreme climate and global warming caused by environmental degradation have received increasing attention from governments and environmental organizations.As the world’s largest carbon emission country,China has also issued a variety of policies and regulations,and actively adopted various measures to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.Therefore,carbon emissions trading “has arisen at the historic moment”.Since the development of China’s carbon trading market,there have been nine carbon emission rights exchanges in different regions of the country.However,due to the late start and various system regulations,these nine exchanges have still operated independently since their establishment.The exchange has an independent trading system and trading system,which makes the transaction price differ greatly,and the number and amount of transactions are different.So far,the nine pilot exchanges have been active only in Hubei and Guangzhou.By.Therefore,only by building a unified national carbon trading market,integrating different trading systems and trading systems,and forming a unified and reasonable price,can we eliminate the risk of fluctuations in the price of carbon emissions trading in our country,maximize energy conservation and emissions reduction,and achieve a green and low-carbon economy.development of.In light of the above analysis,quantitatively assess the price fluctuation risks of China’s carbon emission trading prices,and propose policy recommendations to prevent risks in order to better promote the construction of a unified national carbon trading market and realize the green and sustainable development of our economy.The article first introduces the research background of carbon emissions trading,summarizes the research progress and current status at home and abroad,which focuses on the analysis of domestic research status in China,and finally evaluates domestic and foreign research literature.By sorting out the research background and research review,a systematic analysis of the theoretical and practical significance of studying the risk of price fluctuations in China ’s carbon emission rights is made.A qualitative study of the influencing factors of price fluctuations in China ’s carbon emission trading prices shows that macroeconomics,energy prices,Temperature and policies are the main influencing factors of China’s carbon trading price fluctuations.By comparing the descriptive statistics of the selected five exchanges,the characteristics of price fluctuations of the five exchanges are analyzed;the Va R-GARCH model is constructed,which provides the basis for the next chapter to evaluate and quantify the risk of price fluctuations in China’s carbon emissions trading,and proposes Posterior method—Kupiec failure frequency test to test the rationality and correctness of the constructed model;the daily average price of the five exchanges was selected as the research data.First,the selected data was logarithmically processed and described.Statistics,stationarity analysis,and autocorrelation test to determine that a GARCH model can be constructed,and then the optimal distribution of the three distributions according to the AIC criterion and the SC criterion is the student t distribution and the lag order p = 1,q = 1,Then get the parameter estimation results of the GARCH(1,1)model,calculate the daily Va R value of the five exchanges according to the obtained variance equation,and get the Va R value of the trading price fluctuation risk under the student t distribution from big to small: Beijing,Guangzhou,Tianjin,Hubei,Shenzhen.Then,through Kupiec-failure frequency test results,the student t distribution with the best test results among the three distributions is obtained,and it is verified that the selected model is correct.Finally,based on the empirical results obtained above,a comprehensive use of finance and energy is used.Finance and environmental science,proposed “improving the legal framework,regulating market behavior”,“constructing prevention and control systems,realizing risk monitoring”,“clarifying the government-market boundary,improving the pricing mechanism”,“effectively linking pilots and cultivating professionals” and “Building a unified market and increasing market vitality”policy recommendations.