Evaluation Of The Cultivated Land Ecological Security And Its Coordinated Development With The Economic Development In Fujian Province

Ecological security is an important part of national security.Cultivated land ecosystem is an important part of ecosystem,the situation of the cultivated land ecological security has vital effect on the regional ecological security.The evaluation and prediction of the cultivated land ecological security can not only grasp the current cultivated land ecological security status,understand the obstacle factors affecting the cultivated land ecological security,but also make reasonable countermeasures to its changes.At the same time,as the core area of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,the economic development of Fujian province is facing an unprecedented opportunity,whereas the economic development and the construction of cultivated land ecological security is equally important,to guide the regional sustainable development,the analysis of the coordinated development of the two systems is of great significance.Based on the PSR model,this paper builds an index system to evaluate the present situation of cultivated land ecological security in Fujian province from 2004 to 2015,analyzes the main obstacle factors by the obstacle model,and then uses the coordinated development model to get the coordinated development values of the cultivated land ecological security and the economic development in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015,Finally,the unbiased GM(1,1)model is used to predict the data of cultivated land ecological security index in 2016-2025,and then obtain the cultivated land ecological security values in the next ten years.We can know the future situation of cultivated land ecological security in Fujian province by analyzing these values.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Evaluation of the cultivated land ecological security current situation and analysis of it's obstacle factors.From 2004 to 2015,the cultivated land ecological security status of Fujian province has been improved year by year,and the safety status has been improved from general safety to relatively safety.During this period,the obstructive layer of cultivated land ecological security has changed from the initial response layer to the subsequent pressure layer,specific factors is vary from each period.In 2004-2009,The main factors are the cultivated land reclamation rate,t consumption of agricultural film per hectare cultivated land,and the consumption of chemical fertilizer per hectare cultivated land.In 2010-2015,they are consumption of chemical fertilizer per hectare cultivated land,Environment invest per GDP,rural per capita disposable income and so on.(2)Analysis on the coordinated development of cultivated land ecological security and economic development.From 2004 to 2015,the coordination degree and coordinated development degree between the cultivated land ecological security and economic development in Fujian province showed an increasing trend,and the coordination of the two systems was continuously strengthened.The coordinated development condition changed from the initial uncoordinated development state that the economic development is lagging to the high-level coordinated development that the two system is synchronously developping.(3)Prediction and analysis of cultivated land ecological security in future.According to the predicted result,we know that the cultivated land ecological security values in Fujian province are falling during 2016-2025,and the safety grade decreased as well,changed from the relatively safety status in 2016-2020 to general safety state in 2021-2025,and there was a descending trend.By the analysis,we know that the response layer is the main obstacle in 2016-2020,and the specific obstacle factors are rural per capita disposable income,forest coverage rate,agricultural mechanization level per hectare cultivated land,in 2021-2025,the pressure layer is the main obstacles,and the main factors are the cultivated land reclamation rate,t consumption of agricultural film per hectare cultivated land,and the consumption of chemical fertilizer per hectare cultivated land and so on.