Research On CO₂ Emissions And Reduction Potential In China's Transport Sector

As the pace of urbanization continues to accelerate,the development of transportation industry in China is becoming more and more rapidly.This makes fossil energy consumption increase significantly,and carbon emissions of transportation industry grow very fast.Therefore,it is significant to research CO2 emissions and reduction potential in China's transport sector both in theory and practice.According to statistics,the proportion of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry over the total carbon emissions reached 10%.However,carbon emissions in China's transportation industry will increase continuously with the advancement of urbanization and industrialization.Under this background,this paper gets comprehensive understanding on the developing situation and characteristics of China's transportation industry based on the literature at home and abroad.We make the forecast about carbon emissions of China's transportation industry in recent years and the next few years.This paper adopted LMDI method to decompose carbon emissions of China's transportation industry into carbon emission coefficient effect,energy intensity effect,transportation structure effect,transportation intensity effect,urbanization effect,income effect,industrial structure effect,the contribution of tertiary industry effect and population effect 9 factors.The results show that urbanization effect and income effect are the main factors to promote the growth of carbon emission in China's transportation industry.Meanwhile,transportation structure effect,industrial structure effect and population effect also arouse the increase of carbon emission in varying degrees.In contrast,energy intensity effect and transportation intensity effect play the main roles on inhibiting carbon emissions of China's transportation industry.This paper sets 3 emission reduction potential scenarios based on the analysis result of each effect.The simulation results indicate that transportation industry in China has great potential for reducing emissions,especially in the highway transportation department of transportation industry.Finally,this paper puts forward a series of targeted policy recommendations based on analysis results in order to provide basis and reference for China's government to develop energy saving and emission reduction strategies in the transportation industry.