Research On The Decoupling Status And Mitigation Potential Of China's CO₂ Emissions At Provincial Level

CO₂ is the most important part of the root causes of global warming.Therefore,to address global warming,the most critical problem is to control CO₂ emissions.China is in the stage of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization process.Long-term economic development with the coal-dominated energy consumption structure and industrial economic structure,China has become the world's largest carbon emitter since 2006.China is under a great deal of pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.The main goals of national energy and environmental policies are slowing the greenhouse effect and reducing CO₂emissions.The local government provided key guidance and protection for the environmental protection laws and policies.Therefore,exploring the characteristics of carbon emissions at the provincial level is important for devising a carbon emissions reduction plan.First,according to the method used by the IPCC,this paper calculate CO₂emissions at the Provincial Level in China.A center of gravity model is used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of CO₂ emissions.The contribution decomposition method is used to study the contribution of provincial regions to gravity movement.From 2000 to 2017,this center of gravity varied between113.71-114.79°E and 34.12-34.48°N.The center of gravity moved southwestward,changing from Qi County,Kaifeng City,Henan Province,to Xinzheng City,Zhengzhou City,Henan Province.In 2000-2017,the major regional engines driving the center of gravity to move westward are Xinjiang,Heilongjiang,Shanghai,Liaoning and Ningxia,and the major regional engines driving the center of gravity to move northward are Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Guangdong,Shanghai and Shandong.Second,this paper deduces the connection between Per capita GDP?g?and the Tapio decoupling index?D?as a formula.Then,a two-dimensional decoupling model and decoupling analysis framework is constructed based on a Cartesian coordinate system with Per capita GDP?g?as horizontal axis and Tapio decoupling index?D?as vertical axis.The decoupling status of China's CO₂ emissions at provincial level and its dynamic path over the period 2000-2017 is explored.SD?Strong Decoupling?did not occur in sub-period 2000-2005.In the sub-period2015-2017,the CO₂ emissions presented SD-HE?Strong Decoupling-High economic stage?and SD-MHE?Strong Decoupling-Middle and high economic stage?with economic development in 12 regions.During the study period 2000-2017,the decoupling development scores for Beijing,was the biggest.However,the decoupling development score for Ningxia was the smallest,followed by Xinjiang,Guizhou,Guangxi,and Shangxi.Finally,to better achieve emission reduction targets,it is necessary to study the emission reduction potential of carbon dioxide emissions in China.The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method is applied to find the driving factors governing carbon dioxide emissions.Furthermore,the theoretical model of carbon dioxide emission reduction is applied to calculate the emission reduction potential.The energy intensity effect was the most factor decreasing China's carbon dioxide emissions.Only through further decreasing energy intensity can provinces effectively increase their carbon reduction rates.This paper has a total of 5 pictures,24 sheets,132 references.