Decomposition And Prediction Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The Chinese Energy-intensive Industry

As China's economy enters “new normal”,its development model has gradually transferred from rapid growth to a slower but more sustainable growth.The government has proposed to cut CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 17% over 2010's goals in the next five years,while achieving both energy intensity and energy consumption under control.This year is the ending of the “12th five year plan”,and it's time to verify the results of the current emission reduction.On the other hand,the government needs to make policies for new reduction goals in the “13th five year plan”.As energy-intensive industry has the characteristic of high energy consumption and large emissions,implementing policies of controlling emissions is of great significance.Based on the energy data from 2000-2012,this paper analyzes the dominant factors which affects the carbon emissions and their extent respectively.What's more,it also forecasts the emissions in the next five year according to the results acquired.Firstly,this paper calculates CO₂ emissions from 2000-2012 based on the calculation model offered by IPCC and analyzes the trend of both energy and carbon emissions these years under the government guidelines.The results imply that Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals has the most carbon emissions in the research period and the highest increasing growth at the same time.On this basis,it decomposes the overall emissions into five factors: economic scale,industrial structure,emission coefficient,energy intensity and energy structure.The decomposition analysis was made by LMDI with economic scale factor and industrial structure factor attributed to the economic effects,while energy intensity factor?energy structure factor and emission factor attributed to energy effect.The results indicate that economic effect was the major factor of the increase,while industrial structure factor has no consistent trend on the carbon emissions.And from the energy view,energy effect had a negative effect on carbon emissions,of which the energy intensity factor was the most critical and the other two factors don't contribute much.Secondly,this paper constructs a decoupling index based on the DPSIR frame.The change of the results was positively correlated with the government macroeconomic policies,and every period of the research showed weak decoupling effects.This illustrates that existing energy saving and emission reduction polices are not enough to offset the emission increase stimulated by the expansion of economic scale and the rising GDP.Therefore,the relevant government departments should intensify efforts to implement policies to improve the energy efficiency of energy-intensive industries in order to advance conservation efforts.Finally,we establish three scenarios to estimate carbon emissions in 2020.The parameter setting is based on the LMDI results which includes the average annual growth rate,the highest annual growth rate and the lowest annual growth rate of various factors.It comes out that there's huge difference under the low carbon scenario and high-carbon scenario.Emissions of China's energy-intensive industries still have great reduction potential.Based on the research above,we've found the characteristics of energy-intensive industries,their dominant affecting factors with contributing rates,emission trends and reduction potential in the future,while proposed a few recommendations for reference.Furthermore,analysis model in this paper may be applied to other analysis of specific urban carbon emissions.