Research On The Application Of Fuzzy Relevance Theory In The Market Method To Appraise The Carbon Price

In recent years,with the development of the global carbon trading market,a lot of academic researches focusing on the carbon assets,including carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions were published.According to the theoretical researches,the studies on the evaluation of carbon asset's value are quite a lot,however,previous studies mostly based on the angle of carbon derivatives market or their own companies.And there are some typical measures to evaluate the carbon right value,such as,option pricing model,shadow price and cost model.Few studies basing on the perspective of spot market by using the traditional method to evaluate the value of carbon assets.In this paper,the traditional evaluation method is selected as the starting point of the whole theoretical research,which is combined with the characteristics of current carbon trading market.Meanwhile,we discuss the problems related to the value of the carbon assets and try to use fuzzy and grey correlation theory with the current transaction data on the market.In this way,we can finally select the most similar transactions with the object,and then realize the assessment of carbon assets.Specifically,first of all,the theoretical researches on the value of the carbon asset are summarized in this dissertation.And we can find out some significant factors which can affect the carbon emission value,according to domestic and foreign studies.We will use these factors,having an influence on carbon asset value(EUA stock market value as the main representative),after adjust them according to the actual situation.Secondly,the popular carbon assessment methods are introduced and discussed and also the difficulties of market feasibility method.Thirdly,the strategy of "fuzzy association degree" and ideas of the fuzzy relevance theory are introduced,including the concept and principle of closeness degree and grey correlation degree of fuzzy mathematics.We also points out the feasibility to use correlation degree to assess the closeness between the trading cases.Fourthly,use the main characteristic factors to establish sequence matrix and fuzzy matrix and construct fuzzy assessment model.Finally,we make the empirical analysis by using the EU EUA market data and draw the conclusions.