Research On Evaluation And Prediction Of Low Carbon Development Level Of Coal Enterprises

Since the 19th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC),under the guidance of the concept of green development,China has been actively building a green,low-carbon and circular economic system for development,which undoubtedly points out the development direction for coal enterprises,namely,low-carbon development.The transformation of the country's economy from high-speed development to high-quality development also gives coal enterprises a warning that the economic index is not the only competitive index,and the ability of low-carbon development level becomes the key index that determines the survival and development of coal enterprises.This paper takes coal enterprise Shenhua Group as the object of empirical study,with its low carbon development level evaluation and prediction for research problem,based on the theory of energy economy,circulation economy theory,and the theory of sustainable development theory,combining literature research and empirical research,qualitative research and quantitative research methods,such as the combination of coal enterprise based on low carbon development present situation and problem analysis and evaluation,from low carbon prevention studies four aspects,such as building a low carbon development level evaluation index system of coal enterprises,by using projection pursuit method to determine index weight,the grey correlation degree to determine the value,forecast development trend based on the value of and improvement measures are put forward.The main contents are as follows:(1)Based on the research objects and problems,this paper analyzes the current situation and problems of low-carbon development and evaluation of coal enterprises,and puts forward the necessity of low-carbon development evaluation of coal enterprises from three aspects: country,industry and enterprise.(2)Combination principle of index system building,and coal enterprise production low carbon development requirements,from low carbon management,low carbon prevention,low carbon energy consumption and low carbon potential selected 21 indicators in four aspects to construct low carbon development level evaluation index system of coal enterprises,selection of projection pursuit method to determine the index weight,with gray correlation degree to determine the level of low-carbon development value.(3)Taking China Shenhua as the empirical object and its data from 2010 to 2017 as samples,this paper evaluates the enterprise's comprehensive low-carbon development level and development level of various dimensions in the past eight years,and analyzes the results.(4)Based on the evaluation results,GM(1,1)grey prediction model was used to predict and analyze the low-carbon development level of China Shenhua from 2018 to 2022.(5)Based on the evaluation and forecast results,some Suggestions and measures are put forward for the low-carbon development of China's coal enterprises.The study found that:(1)At present,China's coal companies have problems affecting the low-carbon development of the enterprise,such as the impact on the environment in the mining and processing of coal products,and there are evaluation indicators in the evaluation of low-carbon performance of coal companies.There are two major problems: weak system traits and subjectiveness of evaluation methods.(2)According to Shenhua Group's empirical analysis,the evaluation value of Shenhua Group's low-carbon performance basically showed an upward trend from 2012 to 2016,and the growth rate was rapid from 15 to 16 years.This evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation of China Shenhua in recent years,and has verified the effectiveness of the evaluation system.The four indicators such as comprehensive utilization ratio of coal gangue have a great influence on Shenhua's low-carbon performance and should focus on improvement.Possible innovations of this paper:(1)Based on the low-carbon production requirements of coal enterprises,the evaluation index system of coal enterprises' low-carbon development level is constructed to provide new ideas for the construction of low-carbon development index system of coal enterprises.(2)In the past,single subjective and objective weighting methods such as analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method were mostly used to determine index weight.In this paper,projection tracking method was used to determine index weight and expand the method of weight determination.(3)In this paper,prediction research is added to provide new research directions for evaluation research in other fields.Shortcomings of this paper:(1)The index system is still not perfect: the follow-up research plans to add the difficult-to-quantify indicators into the index system.(2)The research samples are not fully improved: in the future,the sample structure and the number of samples should be further improved to improve the objectivity and accuracy of the research results.