The Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions In Guangxi

In this paper,first of all,from 2005 to 2014,the guangxi zhuang autonomous region industrial so2 emissions and life after the sum of sulfur dioxide emissions divided by GDP per capita natural logarithm as environment pollution indicators for calculation.Through geoda software is used to calculate the global Moran's I values of guangxi zhuang autonomous region,14 city spatial characteristics analysis of sulfur dioxide emissions globally;From 2005 to 2008,the global Moran's I rise,presents downtrend from 2009 to 2012,and through the P value,indicating the spatial correlation.Again using geoda software inspection quarterback figure,Moran's I scatterplot,LISA significance level diagram and LISA together figure local space characteristics,spatial pattern changes from 2005 to 2010,2011 to 2014 years,on the specific said that from 2005 to 2011,after five years to baise from sulfur dioxide emissions low area into areas of high sulfur dioxide emissions;Wuzhou,congratulation state from low emissions areas to areas of high.Moran's I scatter diagram shows Moran's I values are positive,that there is spatial correlation.LISA significance level diagram and LISA gathered shows positive spatial agglomeration.In this article,on the basis of forefathers' research on selection of guangxi is sulfur dioxide emissions as explained variable,energy consumption structure,industrial structure and technology level,population,economic development level,policy strength as explanatory variables affecting sulfur dioxide emissions.The energy consumption structure of coal consumption accounted for the proportion of total energy,Total cost of the industrial structure for the total cost of the first industry,the tertiary industry,industrial output,construction industry output value;With the market clinch a deal amount measurement technology;In per capita GDP as the level of economic development;So2 removal and the ratio of emissions intensity as a policy.Not into the space effect of ordinary regression model is not significant,introduce space effect after the technical level and the intensity of policy regression coefficient is larger and negative,that effectively inhibit sulfur dioxide emissions.And economic development level and regression coefficient of the total industrial output value of large and positive,that is the main factors influencing the sulfur dioxide emissions,and the third industry logarithm regression coefficient increases gradually,industry of logarithmic regression coefficient decreases,and appear abnormal phenomenon,the reason was that the transportation energy consumption increases,the third industry growing,technology development to increase energy consumption,explain the consequences of industry transformation.Population and the proportion of coal for the positive influence on sulfur dioxide emissions of secondary factors.Validated in this paper,the convergence of sulfur dioxide:choose from 2005 to 2014,for example sulfur dioxide emissions in guangxi,mainly through the discrete degree of sulfur dioxide emissions were analyzed,and the timing diagram drawing standard deviation.We can see from the picture a brief rise,sulfur dioxide emissions in guangxi in 2008 reduced obviously,and then the slow rebound,but the upward trend is not big,by the year 2012 in guangxi sulfur dioxide emissions standard deviation in the stage of steady decline.Overall,sulfur dioxide emissions no exists a-convergence in guangxi.Reuse geoda software on 9,2005-2008200-2012200-5-2012 three ?-convergence inspection period for the sample data,the ordinary least squares estimate of regression model shows that the sulfur dioxide emissions in guangxi ?-convergence model is not ideal,therefore introduces spatial econometric model ? inspection,spatial lag,spatial error?-model of the test shows that sulfur dioxide emissions does not exist in guangxi ?-convergence.That guangxi sulfur dioxide emissions in three period there is no stable process condition,no low so2 emission of city fast,high sulfur dioxide emissions to slow emissions in city.To sum up,in order to improve the level of economic development in guangxi at the same time to ensure that the environmental quality,this paper established to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure,enhance the government policy management and reduce industrial so2 emissions,develop environment friendly economic policies,promote environment friendly economic development in guangxi.