The Measurement Of China's Transportation CO₂ Emissions And The Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Its Influencing Factors

The transportation sector is highly dependent on energy.Following the energy sector and the industrial sector,the transportation sector has now become China's third largest CO2 emission department,and it has shown a large base and rapid growth.In May 2013,the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China issued the"Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Green Circulation Low Carbon Transportation Development".It is proposed to strive to basically complete the goal of building a green and low-carbon transportation system in China by 2020.Strengthening the emission reduction work of the transport sector is also one of the effective ways to ease the shortage of resources and environmental issues in China.At the same time,it is of great practical significance to achieve the goal of controlling greenhouse gas emissions in China by 2020.The paper reviews and organizes domestic and international studies on carbon emissions measurement methods and influencing factors in the transportation industry.At the same time,it summarizes spatial interaction theory,spatial econometric theory and research methods,and concludes that it is necessary to introduce spatial effects into China's transport carbon emissions analysis of the influencing factors.The paper collected energy consumption data of the transportation industry from 30 provinces(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Tibet)from 2005 to 2015.According to the"top-down" approach,the carbon emissions of various provinces were measured and calculated by using carbon emission factors.The temporal and spatial trends of carbon emissions from transportation in various provinces were analyzed by using the measured results.It was found that the total carbon emissions from China's transportation showed a year-on-year growth trend from 2005 to 2015,and the differences between regions were extremely significant.An exploratory spatial data analysis of carbon emissions from transportation shows that the carbon emissions between the provinces show a clear positive correlation in space.This positive spatial correlation is stable over a long period of time.High-high concentration regions are mainly distributed in In the Yangtze River Delta,the low-low agglomeration phenomenon mainly distributes in northwest China.The indicators such as per capita GDP,average energy consumption per vehicle,transportation intensity,comprehensive turnover volume,and The proportion of highway turnover represent the economic,technical,and transportation factors that affect the carbon emissions from transportation was chosen.Through the establishment of various spatial econometric models,the spatial lag model of individual fixed effects was selected to analyze the influencing factors.The elastic coefficients of per capita GDP,vehicle average energy consumption,transportation intensity,comprehensive turnover volume,and the proportion of highway turnover for transportation carbon emissions were 0.901,0.768,0.474,0.546,and 0.042,respectively.The level of economic development and transportation intensity,traffic activity level,and the proportion of road transport have a significant positive impact on the amount of carbon emissions from transportation,and the level of energy-saving technologies has a significant negative impact on the amount of carbon emissions from transportation.In addition,there is a spatial spillover effect in transportation carbon emissions.Each 1%increase in transportation carbon emissions in neighboring provinces will increase the province's transportation carbon emissions by 0.024%.Based on the above findings,the following policy recommendations are put forward:First,to control the speed of extensive economic growth and do not promote economic development at the expense of the environment.To achieve the goal of changing the mode of economic growth.To implement the national action plan of"structural adjustment,transfer methods,promote upgrade".Second,raise the level of low-carbon technologies.Carry out low-carbon technological innovations including energy,vehicles,roads,and traffic management to reduce the average energy consumption of vehicles.At the same time,cultivate people's awareness of low-carbon transportation.Third,focus on optimizing the structure of the transportation system,increase the efficiency of road access,strengthen the construction of public transportation infrastructure and encourage the use of green transport.Fourth,when formulating regional carbon emissions reduction policies,agglomeration areas with the same characteristics of carbon emissions should formulate coordinated emission reduction policies to form inter-regional linkage mechanisms and strengthen research cooperation in the airspace.