Spatial Econometric Analysis Of The Direct And Indirect Effects Of Carbon Emission In China

Since the reform and opening up, China’s sustained economic growth, at the same time, the environmental problem appears a growing influence, the regional environmental problems gradually emerged, and the emergence of this phenomenon is not conducive to the sustainable development of China’s economy. Environmental problems mainly in carbon emissions, and carbon emissions is influenced by many factors, such as industrial structure, income level, energy prices, which carbon emissions by direct and indirect effects become a problem worthy of study, indirect effects that spillover effects. Firstly, the national and provincial carbon emissions present situation and characteristic were summarized, using exploratory spatial data analysis, indicates the presence of spatial agglomeration effect, so as to further the spatial regression analysis, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the direct and indirect impact on carbon emissions. Then the national 30 provinces 2000-2014 years of panel data, in the carbon emissions of Kaya formula based on the construction factors, inter provincial panel data model construction based on common econometrics, and spatial panel model was constructed based on the new economic geography theory, discusses the differences between the two models from the direct impact of the mode and indirect effects.The results show that the spatial error model of the direct and indirect influence coefficient of economic significance is more reasonable and more fitting. The indirect effects of the OLS model are 0. From the empirical results can be seen, industrial structure is the main factor for the direct and indirect effects of carbon emissions, explains in the next period of time, the industrial structure is still the carbon emissions to promote the role of main factors. Direct and indirect effects of GDP, per capita income, city level, population density and promote carbon emissions increase in a certain degree. While energy prices make the corresponding decline in carbon emissions. Finally, the paper puts forward the optimization of the industrial structure, the adjustment of income distribution, improve energy efficiency, improve environmental awareness, and reduce regional disparities, reasonable planning space layout and other relevant policy recommendations.