Prediction Of Net Carbon Emission In Heilongjiang Province Based On STIRPAT Model

With the rapid development of society and economy,the scale of human activities is expanding,and the corresponding energy consumption is increasing,the environmental problems is becoming increasingly prominent also.Among them,the greenhouse effect as a result of the blind development of human industry and deforestation has been a threat to the survival of mankind in the future.In this context,how to effectively control the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has become the focus of common concern of the world,low carbon development is imminent.In China,Heilongjiang province is a major province of energy consumption and forest resources which has a certain influence on national energy carbon emissions and forest carbon absorption,so the research of net carbon emission in Heilongjiang province has a important significance to deal with future greenhouse effect and low carbon development in china.First of all,using the volume-biomass equation method to estimate the forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang province from 1994 to 2013,and to establish the relationship between forest carbon density and age,on this basis,predict the forest carbon storage from 2014 to 2020 in Heilongjiang province depend on Heilongjiang Province's Provincial Forest Protection and Utilization Plan(2010-2020).Then use carbon emission coefficient method to estimate Heilongjiang Province's carbon emissions from 1995-2014,and predict the primary fossil energy consumption and energy consumption structure by the BP neural network model and Markoff model.Finally,establish the STIRPAT model of carbon emission in Heilongjiang province and the contribution rate of eight factors to carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province was obtained.The results show that in the future,the net carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province will show a downward trend,the coal consumption,urbanization rate has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,the effect of forestry expenditure proportion on carbon emissions is relatively small.According to the research results,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of low carbon economy in Heilongjiang Province.