Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In Jiangsu Province Based On STIRPAT Model

Nowadays,global warming and air pollution are becoming more and more serious,carbon emissions peak and the peak time of Jiangsu Province,for controlling the carbon emission of Jiangsu Province and achieving the "13th Five-Year" planning goal,as soon as possible to reach the peak of carbon emission of Jiangsu,now to study on peak prediction of carbon emission and control strategies.The paper basic theories are the low-carbon economy,externality theory and the sustainable development theory.At first,study of population,GDP,industrial structure and energy structure of Jiangsu province,using carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon emissions of Jiangsu in 1990-2015,for providing data support predicting carbon emission peak.Then using the Kaya equation and the LMDI method to analyze the impact of various factors on the carbon emissions in Jiangsu province.Using STIRPAT model,select the population,per capita GDP,energy intensity,the rate of urbanization and the second industry accounted for more than five indicators,set low,medium and high speed carbon emission scenarios,combined with the fitting data of carbon emissions from the 1990-2015,using STIRPAT formula to predict the carbon emission of Jiangsu Province in 2016-2040 under different scenarios,then come to the peak and the time of carbon emission of Jiangsu Province in different development scenarios.Finally,according to the decomposition results of LMDI factors and the prediction results of carbon emission,this paper puts forward some strategies and suggestions for the control of carbon emission in Jiangsu province.The research results show that the factors of demographic,economic development and population have positive influences to carbon emission,and the energy intensity factor has negative influence.the economic development factor has the largest contribution rate to carbon emission,next are energy intensity,population and energy intensity.In different development mode,the peak and the time of carbon emission are not the same.The peak time of carbon emission appears earliest under the high speed development mode and the peak of carbon emission under the low speed development mode is the largest.At last,the paper puts forward some suggestions from four aspects of energy saving and emission reduction,energy structure adjustment,industrial structure adjustment and population optimization on the control of carbon emission peak.