Comprehensive Evaluation Of Ecological Security In Xinjiang Section Of The Silk Road

Since the ancient times,ecological security is the necessary foundation for the development of human beings,in the long course of historical development,the development of different periods is accompanied by different ecological environment changes,primitive society,feudal society,industrial era and modern society cannot do without ecological environment which is the necessary material basis of development,and all have witnessed the development process of ecological security.Since the entering into the 21 st century,the Silk Road has been endowed with new vitality,the development of the Silk Road Economic Zone is related to the establishment of the new economic structure,this highly developed economic belt is bound to develop rapidly,the expansion of its scale will bring a series of ecological security problems to Xinjiang area where is the ecological fragile area,such as environmental pollution,ecological destruction,resource scarcity and so on.Accordingly,the study of ecological security in Xinjiang is of great significance to the sustainable development of the Silk Road Economic Zone.The development of ecological security is a dynamic process based on the complex changes of human social,economy,society and nature act on the whole ecosystem,the quantitative assessment of ecological security can be carried out from the perspectives of economic system,social system and natural system,having done a comprehensive and systematic analysis of ecological security,in the hope of providing a scientific basis for sustainable development of economy,society and nature in the Silk Road Economic Zone.Taking three areas along the north,middle and south routes of the Silk Road in Xinjiang as a study area,by means of grey correlation evaluation model,this paper calculated grey relational coefficient of ecological safety,and evaluated the ecological security level,according to spatial analysis,the evolution characteristics of ecological security in different periods were analyzed;Based on the principle of triangle model,the economic development index,the non-social coordination index and the non-environmental carrying capacity index were calculated by using the comprehensive index method,finally,the ecological security status and trends were analyzed;By using the coupling coordination degree model and the obstacle degree model,this paper analyzed the main driving mechanism of ecological security level from subsystem and single factor respectively.Based on the grey relational coefficient of ecological security from 2003 to 2015,we forecasted the ecological security index of three areas along the north,middle and south routes of the Silk Road in Xinjiang from 2020 to 2016 by using GM(1,1)prediction model.The main conclusions were as follows:(1)This paper evaluated spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological security level by calculating grey relational coefficient of ecological safety.From 2003 to 2015,the ecological security index increased year by year in Xinjiang Silk Road area,the development trend of ecological security was well,the level of ecological security was gradually developing from very insecurity to safety,in three areas along the north,middle and south routes,the ecological security level overall showed a decreasing state;From the space point of view,in the middle area of the north route,western areas of the middle and south routes,the development of ecological security level was generally good,the ecological security level reached the highest level in Urumqi economic circle of north route,including Urumqi city,Changji city,Turpan city and Hutubi county,the ecological security level was rising rapidly in Korla city and its surrounding areas of middle route,ecological security level was better in Kashi city and its surrounding areas of south route.(2)Based on the principle of triangle model,the economic development index,the non-social coordination index and the non-environmental carrying capacity index were calculated by using the comprehensive index method,according to the evaluation standard of ecological security level based on triangle model,the level of ecological security in north route was mainly concentrated in the level ?,that was the weak security state,the level of ecological security in middle and south routes were mainly concentrated in the level V,that was the unsafe state,most cities were mainly concentrated in the higher level of the V,however the level of ecological security in south route was mainly in the lower level of the V.(3)By using the coupling coordination degree model and from subsystem,this paper analyzed comprehensive index of economic,social and natural subsystems of ecological security in Xinjiang Silk Road area from 2003 to 2015,according to the index of each subsystem,cities were divided into different types of development,the cities in north route were divided into 6 types,cities in middle and south routes were divided into 5 types respectively,in three areas along the north,middle and south routes of the Silk Road,the types of urban development were more prominent in social progress and economic development,urban development types were less prominent cities of natural benefits;having calculated and analyzed the spatial characteristics of coupling coordination degree,from 2003 to 2015,we found that in Xinjiang Silk Road area,ecological security had experienced the process from the low level of coupling coordination to the higher level,In general,the process of development was the class of maladjustment-transition-coordinated development,however,in north route,the coupling coordination level was high and stable,in middle and south routes,the coupling coordination level was week,in particular,in south route,the coupling coordination level developed slowly.(4)By using the obstacle degree model and from single factor,this paper analyzed the main obstacle factors of each cities ecological security in Xinjiang Silk Road area;we had done a comprehensive comparative analysis of the obstacles in the four periods of 2003,2007,2011 and 2015,the results showed that,in north route,the main obstacle factors were more and more emphasis on the factors of economy and urbanization,in middle route,the obstacle factors mainly focused on agriculture and population,in south route,the obstacle factors mainly focused on the total area of arable land,crop planting area,fertilizer use intensity and land reclamation rate.(5)Based on the grey relational coefficient of ecological security from 2003 to 2015,we constructed a prediction model of ecological safety correlation coefficient in Xinjiang Silk Road area,and then forecasted the ecological security index of three areas along the north,middle and south routes of the Silk Road in Xinjiang from 2020 to 2016 by using GM(1,1)prediction model.The prediction results showed that,in future five years,the ecological security index increased in varying degrees,and the development trend of ecological security was generally good in three areas along the north,middle and south routes of the Silk Road.