Study On The Spatial And Temporal Environmental Risks In Mining Industey City Where The Birth Defects Incidence Rate Is High

Birth defect is one of the leading causes for newborn babies' death worldwide.Neural tube defect(NTD)is congenital anomalies that occur in the central nervous system,and is one of the birth defects with the highest incidence.China has the world's highest rate of NTDs.Moreover,Shanxi province which is a leading producer of coal in China,has the Chinese highest incidence of NTDs.Yuanping County,a mining industry city,is one of the cities with highest incidence of NTDs in Shanxi province.Recently,with the growing interest in spatial and temporal analysis,spatial-temporal modeling has been developed greatly.And one of spatial-temporal model based on the theory of bayesian has been extensively applied.In this paper,we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern for the NTDs in Yuanping County,and assessed the impact of putative sources of hazards on the health status.The result are expected to provide scientific basis to study the potential risk factors and prevent the occurrence of NTDsThe incidences of NTDs in Yuanping County of Shanxi Province from 2007 to 2012 were studied.Firstly,we carried out spatial descriptive analysis,the exploratory results helped us to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the NTDs.Secondly,Bayesian spatial-temporal model was applied,which incorporated with a space-time interactions component to explore the overall spatial pattern,the overall time trend and the departures of the local trends from the overall trend of NTDs.Finally,modelling the health risk around putative sources of hazard,the analysis proceeds by the assessment of the relation between the hazard measurements and the NTDs incidence,and mapped the hazard measurements of NTDs incidence.Results showed that the incidence rates of NTDs in Yuanping County is still very high.There is 1 hot spot,none cold spot and 17 areas that are neither hot spots nor cold spots.As a whole,the risk of NTDs in Yuanping County is slowly decreasing.Compared to the overall decreasing trend in Yuanping County,the single hot spot has a lower decreasing trend,four areas which are neither hot spots nor cold spots show a faster decreasing trend.The rest of thirteen areas show the same decreasing trend as the whole.Finally,the peak-then-decline hazard with increasing distance was verified.Then the highest incidence rates of NTDs are focused on the adjoining areas among xizhen,zhongyang and xinyuan towns.Result also showed that there might be over 100 NTDs when 10000 babies were born in the adjoining areas.