Research On Carbon Emissions Decoupling Index And Influencing Factors

The climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become a global issue that threaten human health and the living environment. China has become one of the world’s leading CO2 emitters, so the pressure on China due to international negotiations related to reducing emissions is greater than ever. To mitigate this pressure and achieve sustainable development, the china government should immediately take action. In fact, with the advancement of the process of urbanization and economic development continues, the situation will be more severe.Based on the environmental Kuznets curve, decoupling index calculation model, and LMDI decomposition method, this study analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development and the main factors which influences the carbon emission from the time and apace dimension. This study is conducted at the national level and regional level. the results are as follows:(1) From 2001 to 2013, the annual carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in China increased year by year. However, because of a series of macro-control policies, growth speed presented a downward trend. At the regional level, carbon emissions and its growth rate are significantly different among. Most of carbon emissions are from the eastern regions of China, which have large population, rich natural resources, and developed economy. The growth rate of carbon emissions of western regions in China is bigger, which is economically underdeveloped.(2) In the long-term evolution trend, carbon emissions and per capita GDP have a inverted "U" shaped relationship, and the peak will occur around 2039. China’s growing economy and carbon emission contradict the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDCs), which was submitted by the Chinese government before the United Nations Conference on Climate Change held in Paris in 2016. So China still has a long way to go to reduce carbon.(3) The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic is in a good condition. And the regional decoupling gap is gradually narrowing, but to achieve a real strong decoupling needed long time. What’s more, there was no significant difference between the three regions and the classification eastern, central and western does not apply to analysis the decoupling relationship between provincial carbon emissions and economic development.(4) Decomposition cumulative effect results that in terms of economic growth and urbanization has always been the driving factor in the region’s carbon emissions growth, and economic growth is the main factor, followed by urbanization; Energy intensity play an inhibitory obvious effec; Population scale mainly performance weak negative effect to provincial carbon emissions.The aim of this study is to point out the regions and measure, which is the core to reduce carbon emission, and provide reference to the China government for making economic decision and strategy of sustainability development. This study may also provide theoretical basis for other research.