The Influence Factors Of China's Regional Carbon Intensity And Sensitivity Analysis

In this paper,through the path analysis,it clarified the relationship between energy consumption structure,industrial structure,urbanization rate,technological progress level and economic level,the direct relationship and indirect relationship between the five influencing factors and carbon intensity,and the influence mechanism analysis.Then,STIRPAT expansion model and panel data model are used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon intensity in China from the national level and the eight comprehensive economic regional level.On this basis,the sensitivity matrix of the influence of each variable on the carbon intensity was obtained by the methods of ridge regression and substitution elasticity,and the sensitivity analysis was carried out.At the same time,it also calculates the contribution potential of the relevant conditions to achieve the "13th Five-Year Plan".The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Through the path analysis study we found: on the whole,the energy consumption structure and industrial structure of the total impact of carbon intensity is positive,the increase in carbon intensity is to promoted,urbanization rate,technological progress and economic level The overall effect on carbon strength is negative and the increase in carbon strength is suppressed.(2)By influencing the mechanism analysis,each factor has an indirect effect on the carbon intensity by other factors,but the degree of indirect influence is different.Which the industrial structure and economic level through the other factors on the total indirect effect of carbon intensity are positive enhancement,the direct impact is negative weaken;and energy consumption structure,urbanization rate and technological progress level through other factors on the total indirect effect of carbon intensity are negative weaken,the direct impact is positive enhancement.The increase of carbon intensity in the energy consumption structure is mainly promoted by direct influence,and the total indirect effect has a certain inhibitory effect.The increase of the carbon intensity of the industrial structure is mainly promoted by the total indirect effect,and the direct effect is the suppression.The increase in carbon intensity by urbanization is more pronounced by total indirect effects;the increase in carbon intensity by technological progress is more pronounced by total indirect effects;the increase in carbon intensity at the economic level is mainly Is suppressed by direct influence,and the total indirect effect is promoted.(3)The industrial structure has a significant positive impact on the carbon intensity in the national and eight regional models,and the energy consumption structure is also significantly affected by the carbon intensity(except for the negative correlation between the southern coastal model);technological progress has a significant negative impact on carbon intensity;the economic level also has a significant negative impact on carbon intensity;while the urbanization rate was not significant between the other model areas except for the significant negative correlation in the southwest region.Economic growth and technological progress have a positive effect on the reduction of carbon intensity,and the industrial structure and energy consumption structure have an inhibitory effect on the reduction of carbon intensity.In the overall model of the country,the influence of industrial structure on the carbon intensity of China is the strongest.The technological progress and economic level have the same effect on the carbon intensity of China.The energy consumption structure has the weakest impact on China's carbon intensity.In the study of regional model,the influence of each factor on the carbon intensity is significant difference between regions.Reducing the proportion of coal consumption,reducing the proportion of secondary industry,increasing R&D investment and improving the level of per capita GDP are in line with the needs of low-carbon development.they are an important way to achieve our goal of carbon intensity.(4)Coal consumption accounted for 1 percentage point lower,if respectively by the proportion of the secondary industry,the proportion of R&D investment,per capita GDP level to replace,then the corresponding reduction in carbon intensity0.1766,0.1962,0.2063 percentage points.According to the "13th Five-Year Plan" related goals and policy forecasts,through the sensitivity matrix we can see,when reducing the proportion of coal consumption by 5%,reducing the proportion of the secondary industry by 5.5%,increasing the proportion of R&D investment by 0.4%,increasing the per capita GDP level by 10.1%,by 2020,the carbon intensity can be reduced by 4.46 percentage points.The contribution to the achievement of the "13th Five-Year Plan" carbon intensity target(18% reduction in carbon intensity)is24.78%.