An Empirical Research On Influencing Factors And Setting Target Of Regional Carbon Intensity In China

In this paper, we selected some quantitative models and methods to study the factors that influencing carbon intensity on both national and regional levels. Then we deeply studied the carbon intensity target of north coast region and the path of the reaching the abatement goal. Major conclusions are including:(1)Economic level is negative to carbon intensity on both the national and eight economic regional levels. The second industry proportion is generally positive to carbon intensity(except Northeast and Yangtze River models). Although there is positive effect of urbanization on carbon intensity, non-significant relationship exists between urbanization level and carbon intensity in regional models(except Northwest model). The foreign direct investment also shows non-significant influence on national and most regional models. The coal proportion positively influence carbon intensity in Northeast, East Coast, Yellow River, Yangtze River and Southwest areas.(2)We set 12 different scenarios of north coast region, and forecast the develop trend of these scenarios. The results show that the carbon intensity of the Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong will all keep decreasing. The rate of carbon intensity abatement of Tianjin and Hebei will decrease in the long run. However, Shandong’s carbon intensity will decrease little during “12th five-year” but decrease more during “13th five-year”.(3) Based on these empirical findings, we find that: due to the differences of energy structure, economic level and technology level, different provinces obviously have different emission reducing potential. The carbon intensity goal of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei during 2005-2020 should be 40%-45% abatement. Beijing’s 18% goal during “12th five-year” is reasonable. Beijing’s goal should be 15% during “13th five-year”. Tianjin’s goal should be 22% during “12th five-year” and 16% during “13th five-year”. Hebei’s goal should be 22% during “12th five-year” and 17% during “13th five-year”. Shandong’s goal should be 12-14% during “12th five-year” and 20% during “13th five-year” which is different from other there provinces.(4) China’s carbon intensity goal is very important to develop low-carbon economy. China and each region should put more attention on the differences between regions and between provinces. To promote stable economic development, decrease second industry proportion, decrease coal proportion in primary energy consumption and invest more lowcarbon technologies are the important path for China and each regions. To reach the carbon intensity abatement goal, each region should give play to complementary advantages and correct disadvantages. The North Coast, East Coast, South Coast, Yellow River, Yangtze River, Northwest and Southwest should decrease second industry proportion. East Coast and Southwest should invest more on low-carbon technologies. Northeast, East Coast, Yellow River, Yangtze River and Southwest should attach great importance to the exploitation and utilization of clean energy and renewable energy.