Research On Real-time Risk Warning Method For Hazardous Materials Transportation By Road

China is the largest producer of hazardous chemicals.More than 5,000 kinds of commonly used chemical raw materials need to be transported in different places.Dangerous goods refer to hazardous chemicals that are flammable,explosive,toxic,corrosive,radioactive,etc.,and are liable to cause accidents such as casualties and property losses during transportation,use,and storage.The main modes of transportation are waterways,roads,railways,air transport,etc.Among them,road transport has become the main route for the transportation of dangerous goods by virtue of its well-established and extensively covered road network,combined with its advantages of being more convenient,being able to flexibly connect different modes of transport,and low transportation costs.Road transport of hazardous materials refers to accidents caused by accidental or accidental personal injury,death,property damage or environmental pollution caused by vehicles transporting hazardous materials.The number of hazardous chemicals transported by roads in China each year accounts for more than 60% of the total transport of dangerous chemicals,accounting for more than 30% of the total annual transport volume of roads,and shows a trend of increasing year by year.This paper reviews the research status of dangerous goods transportation risk identification,classification and early warning at home and abroad,proposes existing deficiencies,and carries out research on real-time risk early warning grading methods for road hazardous materials transport vehicles based on risk three-dimensional models.This paper has carried out statistics on road accidents of hazardous materials in the past three years and analyzed them from the point of view of the causes,time and location of the accidents.Based on a statistical analysis of the causes of a large number of accidents,the risk status of road transport of hazardous materials vehicles was studied from the three dimensions of probability,severity,and sensitivity,and secondary indicators such as cars,drivers,and the environment were constructed.Taking into account the effectiveness of the actual application of indicators,considering the "3E" and "4M" theories of accident prevention and risk control,preliminary selection of indicators,the use of Delphi method and questionnaire survey screening indicators,construction of the risk of road transport risks Early warning indicator system.Reference to a large number of laws and regulations,industry standards,index classification.AHP is used to calculate the weight of each indicator,and finally a mathematical model of risk warning is formed.With reference to the existing hazard source grading standards,combined with ALARP,the real-time risk level of dangerous goods vehicles is divided into four levels,realizing the real-time risk classification of vehicles based on the risk three-dimensional model.In order to verify the scientificity and practicality of this risk early warning model,this paper selected 30 different scenarios and statistically analyzed the index data under each scenario.The empirical research shows that the real-time risk early warning model of road hazardous materials vehicles established in this paper has good practicability and convenience.It is applicable to the real-time risk warning of vehicle drivers and provides the basis for the management of enterprises and the government's risk control.