Analysis On The Marginal Pollution Effect Of Urbanization In Anhui Province

With the proposal of the 13 th five-year plan,the new urbanization strategy has been gradually put on the agenda and the new urbanization emphasizes the quality of both inside and outside.Internal refers to the improvement of the quality of life of the urbanized population and external means that the destruction of the natural environment in the course of urbanization should be within a reasonable range.As a rapidly rising central province,Anhui province has rapidly advanced urbanization and environmental pollution has become more and more serious.In recent years,there have been frequent outbreaks of environmental pollution emergencies.To explore the urbanization level in Anhui province and the present condition of the pollution of the environment,and reveal the relationship between urbanization and pollution effects,new urbanization policies for between Anhui province and the provincial,provide important basis for environmentally friendly development,so this paper selected topic has important practical significance.Frist based on the real connotation of urbanization,this paper makes a calculation of the urbanization level of Anhui Province from 2000 to 2015 by using the compound index method from the aspects of population urbanization,economic urbanization and social urbanization.Several years of urbanization development evaluation,has been the overall level of urbanization in Anhui Province to maintain a stable upward trend.At the same time,using the combination weighting method to calculate the pollution index,the environmental pollution situation in Anhui Province has been deteriorated in recent years,and the trend of environmental deterioration after 2012 is more obvious.And the gray relational degree is used to explore the relationship between the two.According to the calculated results,the correlation degree of the two is 0.73,which is of great practical significance to the follow-up study.Then will economic development level,industrial structure,population urbanization level,efficiency and technical progress as the five factors influencing the effects of pollution,LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the effect factors on the pollution contribution amount.The results show that the level of economic development and urbanization are the same factors causing the pollution effect,and the remaining three factors are the reverse factors that cause the pollution effect.The influence of size of urbanization among five factors in the third,the influence of the urbanization is greater than the efficiency of industrial structure and population factors,and through the establishment of measurement model to calculate the marginal effects of pollution,caused by the urbanization level in Anhui province every year marginal pollution effect increasing year by year,it is not difficult to judge the urbanization is one of the main factors that cause environmental pollution.Through the two derivative of cumulative pollution effect model,calculate the marginal effects of pollution rate,and carries on the curve fitting,get a cubic equation with time as the independent variable,the calculated curve of two extreme value point,respectively is between 2004 to 2005 and from 2011 to 2012.The marginal pollution effect of the first extreme point corresponds to the local maximum,and the marginal pollution effect of the second extreme point reaches the minimum value.Extremum points according to the above conclusion,the present stage Anhui province urbanization level caused by marginal pollution effect rate of change in the minimum point of the right end,according to the development trend of the curve,in the next few years the marginal pollution effect of rate of change in Anhui province will continue to increase,the corresponding effect associated with marginal pollution will have been increased.At last,based on the conclusion of the urbanization and the degree of pollution in Anhui Province,the author draws a series of influences and effects on the environmental pollution in Anhui Province.And based on the conclusionputs forward some policy suggestions.