Cointegration Of Population Urbanization And Environmental Pollution

In the last decade,China's national economy has been developing at a high speed.The process of urbanization has been steadily promoted,during which the urban area and the urban population have been expanding accordingly.In 2016,although China's urbanization rate has reached 57.35%,but which it is still far below the average level of 80%in developed countries,the process of urbanization is to be pushed forward continuously.With the continuous growth of non-agricultural population,the level of population urbanization has been improved,and the problem of urban environmental pollution has become more and more serious.The 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has stated explicitly that the construction of ecological civilization is an essential the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics and is closely related to the realizaion of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.Under this background,this paper analyzes the relationship between population urbanization and environmental pollution in Anhui province.Firstly,on the basis of the criteria for the classification of city size,the paper has classified the city scale of 16 cities of Anhui province and obtained the scale of each individual city during the year of 2005,2010 and 2014,drawing the conclusion that,for the majority of the 16 cities,the urban scale has been expanding significantly.Then by analyzing the level of urban population of each individual city in Anhui province from two directions the dimensions of time and space,the paper has drawn the conclusion that:with very few exceptions,non-agricultural population and urbanization rate of most of the cities has witnessed significant growth over time in Anhui province;the global spatial autocorrelation has significantly decreased,and the number of cities which the local autocorrelation shows a positive correlativity has risen from 5 in 2005 to 12 in 2014.In the analysis of the present situation of the environmental pollution,the paper has mainly explored from the global and local perspective:Overall,the industrial wastewater emission in Anhui Province has been showing small fluctuations;solid waste emission has been increasing year by year in small amount;the total emission of exhaust gas first has substantially increased,and then tend to have increased more slowly and steadily in recent two years;industrial smoke?powder?dust emission has been showing large fluctuations,which first went downward and then upward.Therefore,the Anhui province needs to strengthen control of industrial smoke?dust?emission.Secondly,the paper has conducted research into the action mechanism of urbanization and environmental pollution in Anhui province.To start with,the data of the selected index is processed by logarithms,and then the four main indicators of the impact of environmental pollution are weighed by variation coefficient method.Based on data stationarity test and the result of Cointegration Analysis,the paper has worked on the regression model of population urbanization and city environmental pollution of Anhui province,finding that the quadratic logarithmic model fit best,and city environmental pollution intensity coefficient of the sample period has become greater as the population urbanization intensity became greater,there is showing a positive correlation between the two factors,which can better explain the basic rule of the relationship between the two factors in the decade.Then an empirical analysis based on the VAR model helps obtain the result of the impulse response which suggests that the relation between population urbanization in Anhui province and city environmental pollution to a certain extent,taking on the shape of the Environmental Kuznets inverted“U”curve;meanwhile variance decomposition results point that the urbanization of population has contributed greatly to the city environmental pollution.In summary,we come to the conclusion that the urban environmental pollution has been turning more and more serious with the urbanization of the population.There are two reasons for this phenomenon:one is that the population urbanization level and economic development level of Anhui province are relatively low,and the other is the government's policy control effect.Finally,some suggestions on policies on how to realize both the urbanization of population and the protection of urban environment in Anhui province in the coming future.