Qualitative And Quantitative Analysis Of Human Factors Under Emergency State

With the improvement of the industrial level,equipment reliability is effectively guaranteed,and the corresponding equipment failure rate is declining year by year.But people always occupy an integral part of the industrial system,such as system design,manufacturing,organization,management,maintenance,training,adjustment,and decision-making.This increase the proportion of people in the system gradually,which adds more percentage fatalities due to accidents year by year.Whether it is from the industry accident statistics or the research results of various institutions and scholars,people directly or indirectly cause most of the accidents.The typical situations do like this,the emergency state of the human factors and under normal circumstances exist large differences.Human factors under emergency state plays a crucial role on the evolution of the accident.Therefore,the study of human factors under an emergency is of a large theoretical significance and practical significance for improving the ability of prevention and reduction of accidents.By investigating the origin and definition of human factors and the research situation of human factors,this paper studies the framework of the five aspects of "Human-System-environment-Task-Organization".Based on the analytical framework,the article compares the human factors analysis of commonly used qualitative and quantitative methods and select Human-HAZOP and Bayesian network method for the human factors under an emergency situation.Among them,the method of Human-HAZOP is relying on guidance words and attributive words which form intersection combinational logics,and then put forward improvement measures and repeating the process for each group combination failure causes and consequences,until the entire analysis phase end.Bayesian network method is to obtain the prior probability of basic events according to the expert scoring method and triangular fuzzy number;constructing Bayesian network based on the experience;through accident statistics to obtain the conditional probability table,and using Netica software to structure network and analysis it.Through the Human-HAZOP method,the result of the failure of the human and the prevention measures are put forward,and the improved method is proposed,which are beneficial to the operator and emergency personnel.Bayesian network model evaluation results show that the possibility of urgency accidents is 0.331,and the most likely cause of the accident is "state of the people".In " state of the people ","pressure" is the greatest impact to " state of the people ";in the "environment"," take advantage of the time” effect significantly;in the" task "," "additional tools" effect significantly,in the "organization","security and economic tradeoffs" is the greatest impact;in the "system","information on the availability of" is the greatest impact and other factors influence is relatively weak.From accident prevention and contingency perspective,the primary cause of the accident is the highest node contributing to the accident rate.During the incident handling process,the most effective means is by avoiding the factors.At present,few studies focuses on human factors in an emergency state.Some studies concentrated on part of human factors,and lack of systematic analysis.In this paper,In this paper,the analytical framework is determined,from the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the two dimensions of human factors,and provide assistance to emergency accident prevention.This paper makes a preliminary study on human factors under an emergency situation,and it has a certain reference value for further research in the future.