Human Factor Reliability Analysis Of Fire Emergency Operation In Tank Farm

Petroleum is an important basic industry in China's industry.It has established many large oil depot bases for crude oil reserves.However,due to the flammability and explosive characteristics of crude oil,the oil depot is a very dangerous place.70% to 80% of causes of trouble is human aspect.In the initial stage of the oil tank fire,the fire station and related personnel in the oil depot need to carry out a series of emergency actions.Effective and rapid emergency actions can help lessen secondary outbreaks of fire.lessen the difficulty of the fire brigade's firefighting task,and increase the probability of fighting and controlling the fire.However,the oil depot itself is a complex system of man-machine-pipe-ring.In addition to the dangerous scene of fire,the reliability of people in emergency operations will be greatly affected.Therefore,Reliability analysis is the key to improving the success of fire emergency operations in oil depots.This article takes the oil depot fire as the background,takes fire emergency actions in the oil depot as the research object.This research explored the human factor reliability analysis method suitable for the oil depot fire emergency action,put forward the human error analysis model of the oil depot fire emergency action,then proposed an improved CREAM method to carry out the human error quantitative analysis model.Finally,check the correctness of the method of HRA by a case from oil depot.The following is the main analysis:(1)Based on the statistical analysis of oil depot accident cases and the process of emergency action for oil depot fires,the behavior formation factors of 15 individuals are summarized,and the importance is sorted by the AHP.And build the model of the behavioral factors of human error in the urgency action of oil depot fire.(2)Based on the analysis of the oil depot fire urgency behavior dispose and the impact factors of human mistake,bonded with the human behavior pattern in the emergency action,the oil depot fire emergency action human mistake analysis pattern is builded,and bonded with the operation of task in the oil depot emergency action According to the process conditions,a human error classification framework suitable for oil depot fire emergency operations is proposed,and guiding words are extracted,and human error HAZOP is used to identify human errors that may occur in emergency tasks.(3)On the basis of the above research,the improved CREAM basic law is proposed.Considering that the original method has many uncertain problems,first,the expected effect of CPC is obtained by scoring by experts.Instead,an appropriate score is obtained according to the actual safety report of the oil depot and the safety inspection and evaluation rules of the oil depot.Combining fuzzy mathematics theory and Bayesian inference,the original method,the improved method obtains an accurate probability value.(4)In order to understand the reliability of human factors in specific tasks,the CREAM expansion method is used for predictive analysis,and the membership degree of the fuzzy set of CPC is merged with the weight of cognitive function of the original CPC and the proposed contextual environment index.Multiplying the human failure probability of the task predicted by the CREAM expansion method by the relative cognitive function weight and the corresponding situational environment index improves the accuracy and rationality of the calculation of the human failure probability.Combining Markov theory,construct the human factor reliability state transfer equation for oil depot fire emergency actions in different fire scenarios,and after Laplace transform and inverse transformation,draw the human factors of emergency action in different fire scenarios the law of reliability changes.(5)Taking the emergency task "reducing the liquid level of the accident tank" as an analysis case,the HRA mean developed above is applied to the fire urgency action of oil depot.The application results show the feasibility and superior properties of the presented way.In its analysis,it can systematically identify the human error in the emergency task,and can find the deficiencies in the safety management of the oil depot,and provide relevant step to ameliorate the human error,enhance the oil depot security management.