Traffic Safety Risk Assessment Of Highway In Northern Fujian

With the rapid development of highway traffic, the highway mileage of North Fujian has reached 757 km, including six main lines, such as Fuyin line, Changshen line, Jingtai line, Ningshang line, PuJian line, Guzhen line. With the gradual increase of traffic flow and traffic mileage, safety management of highway has become increasingly serious. The Northern Fujian means the Nanping city, located in the mountainous area.Due to the complex terrain, various climates, complex alignments, and many sections near the river, temporary cliff, steep slope, sharp bends, and the highway of North Fujian become a key region of traffic accident. At present the research of the Northern Fujian Highway traffic safety is less and more focused on the analysis and evaluation of accidents, obviously lagging. Therefore, how to do a good job of accident prevention to reduce the traffic safety risk of North Fujian highway and make it has higher security, is the key of highway traffic safety management in Northern Fujian.Firstly, on the basis of theoretical research on risk and risk management, through clarify the possible impact of risks from different angles to clear the importance of risk assessment. And according to the characteristics of risk, combind with the characteristics of highway to make the definition of highway traffic safety risk. Secondly, based on the related theory of highway traffic safety at domestic and abroad, through the analysis of factors which influence the highway traffic safety, combined with the actual situation of highway in Northern Fujian, further define the objective risk factors of highway traffic safety in Northern Fujian. Then, as to obtain the general distribution characteristics and reveal the correlation between objective risk factors and traffic accident in Northern Fujian using the traffic accident data that occurred in Northern Fujian highway from2009 to2014 in SPSS and Excel for statistical analysis. Thirdly, combine the Delphi method and AHP method to realize the measure of the highway traffic safety risks in Northern Fujian, and through the use of BP neural network to build the probability prediction mode of North Fujian highway traffic safety risk. Then with the use of risk assessment and comprehensive risk value matrix method to realize risk assessment, and certain a section of Pu Jian speed as an example to establish a thematic map that intuitively reflect the comprehensive risk road value with the ArcGIS software.Through this study, systematic analysis of the risk profile of the highway in northern Fujian, which is important to change the current passive post-emergency treatment, provides a reference to form the mechanism of the prior forecast. Meanwhile, with the explanation of the relationship between the causes of accidents and the consequences of accidents, it can improve traffic safety conditions existing highway in northern Fujian, and be convenient for the highway traffic safety management.