Risk Estimation Of Wind Power Project

Energy is the important material basis of economic and social development. Since the industrial revolution, energy consumption of the world is growing rapidly; the ecological environment is going deteriorate, especially in greenhouse gas emissions lead to increasingly serious global climate change. Development and utilization of clean energy and renewable energy is become to the important measures of problems which are energy security、optimize the energy structure、protect the ecological environment、to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to tackle the financial crisis, is also the only way of the achievement which are sustainable economic and social resources and the environment coordinated development. Wind power resources as the one of important energy resources which has played an important role in meet the demand of energy,improve the energy structure, reducing environment pollution and promote economic development. At present, wind power project is a new coming thing, its technology is immature and technical standard is absent, therefore the construction of wind power project is totally different from the construction of substation and meets many uncertain factors, and this may bring some adverse effects on project construction and operation.It’s necessary to study on wind power project, in the purpose of rational planning,scientific placement and avoiding risks during the construction progress.This paper describes the project risk identification, assessment and the basic theory of avoidance strategy; put the project risk management theory into wind power project management. Using the Delphi method to identify the factors that wind power projects facing from technology, economic, resource, environment and contract factors. On this basis, determining the weight of each index, and the risks were evaluated using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct comprehensive evaluation index system of wind power projects; using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to calculate Comprehensive Assessment of levels of weight, giving the analysis of the influence of different factors on the overall risk in a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model(FCE) for power plants currently under construction quantitative research project risk profile; combining results of the analysis presented based on technical risk,economic risk, resource risk, environment risk factors and contract factors, such as risk and liquidity risk avoidance measures. This paper focus on the risk of wind power project,its risk factors are faced by the identification, evaluation, proposed to avoid the risk of coping strategies, We hoped that the paper could provide some references for wind power project building.