The Research On Site Selection Of Mountainous Cities' Road Network Earthquake Emergency Rescue Center Based On Monte Carlo Simulation Method

With the acceleration of urban modernization,human destruction of the ecological environment is also growing worse.Natural disasters become the most serious disaster that human beings are facing.Earthquake is one of the largest natural disasters which threaten human beings.There are more than 4.5 billion US dollars in economic losses caused by the earthquake worldwide every year.Therefore,studying the characteristics and regularity of earthquake disasters,and emergency rescue after the earthquake has been the direction of mankind's tireless efforts.Our country is earthquake-prone and mountainous.Moreover,earthquake usually occurs in mountainous or hilly areas.While mountainous cities' complex road network,intensive buildings,as well as the secondary disasters triggered by earthquake,make the cities' earthquake disaster prevention work particularly important.Mountainous cities' road network earthquake emergency rescue center is key to earthquake disaster emergency evacuation,and rescue.Thus,the rationality of site selection is very important to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue,and to reduce casualties.Firstly,according to researches on current situation of road network connectivity reliability and emergency rescue center both at home and abroad,this thesis analyzes features of topography and road network in mountainous cities,as well as the scale and characteristics of earthquake.It derives the following characteristics of mountainous cities: They have complex terrain conditions,big height difference;There are more bridges,tunnels and other units than plain cities;Earthquake always triggers landslides,avalanches,flash floods and other secondary disasters.Earthquake disasters in mountainous cities happen frequently and the damage was very serious.Secondly,according to these characteristics of mountainous cities,this paper studies the passing probability of urban roads blocked by the rubble of collapsed buildings alongside,as well as the passing probability of road unit,bridge unit,slope unit,and tunnel unit.It also analyzes connectivity reliability and importance of unit probability of mountainous cities' road network;it uses Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate and establish the site selection model of the earthquake emergency rescue center in mountainous cities road network and solving process.Thirdly,according to the characteristics of emergency center and the mountainous city road network,the Adaptability Evaluation System is established.It uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the adaptability of earthquake emergency rescue center in mountainous cities' road network.Finally,it selects Nan'an District Nanping area as an example.Through fieldwork research and analysis,it simulates the connectivity reliability and unit importance in the road network by using Monte Carlo simulation method.According to site selection model of Earthquake Emergency Rescue Center in mountainous cities' road network,it confirms the best location of one or two earthquake emergency rescue centers.Meanwhile,this paper makes a comprehensive evaluation on the adaptability of a node as the emergency rescue center.This thesis sorts the knowledge of connectivity reliability and establishes the site selection model of the earthquake emergency rescue center in mountainous cities' road network.It determines the reasonable location of mountainous city emergency rescue center by using Monte Carlo simulation method.This has a strong theoretical value.It also has a strong practical significance for earthquake disaster prevention in mountainous cities.