Study On The Traffic Forecast Of The Comprehensive Development Of Qijiang River

Based on the comprehensive development project of Qijiang river,it has established a model of comprehensive transport network of Qijiang by studying the relationship among various modes of transport and using the graph theory in this paper.The MATLAB software was used to establish the optimization system based on the principle of genetic algorithm.It has gotten the route schemes which meet the economic,time and safety requirements and the best proportion of freight distribution.Finally,compared with traditional forecasting method,the exponential smoothing method to forecast the regional freight volume of Qijiang,and then calculated the water transport volume of Qijiang river with the best proportion of freight distribution.The main work and conclusion as follows:(1)It has summarized the technical and economic characteristics of various modes of transport,analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of various modes of transport,and then summed up the various factors of the evaluation of the transport mode.(2)It has regarded generalized cost as an unified standard to evaluate the transport network,making the evaluating factors of transport expressed in a quantitative way,and made the evaluation of transport plans scientifical and objective.In addition,it has structured the generalized cost formula based on actual situation.(3)According to the actual situation of the transport network of Qijiang,it has established the optimization model,and designed the initialization,selection and genetic operators based on the principle of genetic algorithm.Finally,the optimization of the comprehensive transportation network of Qijiang was realized,and the optimized routes and transport plans were obtained.(4)It used time series method--the exponential smoothing method to forecast the regional freight volume of Qijiang,then calculated the water transport volume of Qijiang river with the results of optimization,and compared the outcome with the results of <forecasting report of Qijiang shipping development> to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm.