The Reaearch On The Predictive Model Of Expressways’ Maitenance Fee Based On The Aiming Maitenance Period

As the growing development for expressways,the network of expressways has formed gradually.There is a downward trend for building new expressways and a growing demand for maintenance,which this issue should be tackled by financial support.However,there are several problems like lacking of basic theories,low profit of their investment when authorities make plans about how to manage their investment into maintenance.Therefore,some dilemma such as unbalanced qualities of each maintenance constructions,misuse of the maintenance fees and inefficient of their maintenance.For example,nowadays Zhejiang Province Expressway Company decides to take a certain proportion of their revenue(like 10%)as their annual maintenance fees.In order to establish effective system of investing money into maintenance work,aiming maintenance period,the model of predictive maintenance fee,the timing of investing money into maintenance were focused in this dissertation,which is also based on the asphalt pavements from expressways in Zhejiang Province and the predictive aiming maintenance period fee.And the conclusions are:Confirm the parameters in the typical degeneration formulas by using the typical degeneration formulas of pavements performance and PQI,PSSI annual data.therefore the degeneration formulas of pavements performance was carried out.then the aiming maintenance period was set by definiting the concept of aiming maintenance period and taking the degeneration formulas of pavements performance into consideration.By using BP nerve net prediction method and take the maintenance fee of asphalt expressway and its influences as the output and input variable respectively,a more accurate result would be carried out.Therefore,using the fee of predictive maintenance of expressways as dependent variable and its influences as independent variable,the multi-variable non-linear predictive model can be calculated in SPSS software.And the model of calculating the total fee of aiming maintenance period can be carried out through analyzing cash flow of the aiming maintenance period.Optimizing he predictive models of maintenance fees by analyzing the effect of the meassures of maintenance and the influences between the timing and feesvof maintenance.therefore,the start time and interval time of predictive maintenance could be confirmed.Taking the algorism as an example,the total fee of maintenance of Zhejiang Province’s expressways can be calculated and the method of how to invest money into their maintenance work can be concluded.