Study And Analysis On The Membership Degree Of The Security State For The Earth-Rock Dam

Even to this day, the earth-rockfill dam safety problem is still a hot point of water conservancy industry. In this paper, research aims at comprehensive evaluation method of risk in its operation. From how to build a reasonable and scientific evaluation index system of operation, this paper combining the analytic hierarchy process,improved analytic hierarchy process, the cloud model and the fuzzy theory, establishes risk assessment model of earth-rockfill dam operation based on cloud model and fuzzy theory. The main researching content are as follows:(1)Risk evaluation index system of earth-rockfill dam is built, the factors affecting safety of earth-rockfill dam are discussed, selecting principle and construction method of the system are determined. It lays the foundation of risk evaluation of dam operation.(2)A way of combining qualitative index and quantitative index is used, according to the grading standard of assessment indexes and related assignment, relying on expert experience points to quantify the evaluation index, the risk level of earth rock dam safe operation is evaluated objectively in this research.(3)Weighting method of evaluation index is determined and the advantages of improved analytic hierarchy process in determining weight of index is analyzed to determine the weight value of each evaluation index.(4)The construction method of risk assessment model of earth rock dam safety operation is discussed. Cloud model and fuzzy theory are studied. The advantages of the two methods in fuzzy evaluation are analyzed to establish two sets of models. Combined with an engineering example, it is proved that the two models are more accurate than the traditional methods.