Application And Study On The Risk Assessment Method Used In The Large Power Grid Safe Operation

The operational power grid risk assessment can find out the risk points and the weak links in the existing power grid. it can excavate the power grid element potential of reliable operation and provide auxiliary decision information for the Power grid planning and designing,Equipment maintenance and dispatching operation,etc. Such assessment is to ensure the network frame structure is more reasonable, the operation is more reliable and safe and expect to obtain greater economic benefits.This article consider the aging failure model and environment dependent failure model into the power grid element outage model. It put forward Element real-time service integrated model, which is closer to the power grid operation real conditions.Meanwhile, a good data statistical model and a set of relatively complete risk assessment index system is put forward. In order to evaluate comprehensive risk of power grid, several analysis methods are used to determine the index weight, such as analytic hierarchy process and the utility theory method and so on, According to the important degree of the influence of the various indicators to the power grid operation.The reasonable risk classification is used for the failure probability.degree of failure consequences and risk level of the system,refering to the power grid related procedures and regulations. Through the RTS-79test system, the feasibility and rationality of the proposed methods are tested and verified.