Load Characteristic Analysis And Load Forecasting For Little Area Of Regional Power Grid

Load characteristic analysis and load forecasting plays an important role for the security dispatch, stable and economic operation of power system. Based on the analysis of load characteristic, exploring the connection between load and main influence factors and forecasting the future power demand is important to improve the accuracy of load forecastingBased on the analysis of the common influence factors of the load characteristics, from the perspective of the planning and operation of the regional power grid, this paper divides the regional power grid into several different little areas, such as industrial block, residential block and commercial block. Then this paper divides each little area into the to be developed area, developing area and the developed area by the different development stage of the little area. Attaching priority to the temperature and weather factors, this paper finds the internal rules between the load of each little area and temperature by using correlation analysis and regression analysis.On this basis, in view of the low correlation between load and temperature in industrial block, using simple linear regression and multiple linear regression to analyze the relationship between the power demand and economic development, proving the load in industrial block is mainly determined by the economic situation and the structure of the industry.In the end, this paper forests the typical daily load curve, yearly load curve and yearly load duration curve for different kinds of little areas and the whole regional power grid with the influence of temperature load, and proves the practicability and effectiveness of the method through examples.