Theoretical And Applied Research On Load Forecasting Based On Gridding Zone Method

The development of economy and power system leads to a higher requirement of grid planning.Power load forecasting is the prelimary work,as well as a main data source of electrical power system planning and is significant to power generation and dispatching.Both the contents and methods of load forecasting are many and varied for their merits,drawbacks and application scopes.Therefore,the key to load forecasting is choosing appropriate forecasting contents,and building a valid and clear forecasting model.Based on the power system planning and development of Changsha,the claasification and forecast method of load characteristics,as well as their advantages and applications,are summarized.With aspect to applicability and accuracy,the definitions and meaning of load characteristics of different time-span is studied and forecasted using unit consumption method and elastic coefficient method.Thus,the economy structure and its tendency are obtained,and the connection between external parameters,such as economy and weather,and power load is determined.Moving average method,exponential smoothing method and regression curve method are conducted to calculate best fitting value of load characteristic parameters.Then the forecasting load curve is acquired based on historical load curve and predited load characterics.The result indicates its effectiveness and practicability,and the reason analysis of error is presented.Regarding power gird planning,this thesis taking typical high-tech industrial parks in Changsha as study targets.Based on refined grid partitions,the land ststus and its corresponding load characteristics are carefully extracted.The forecasting model is modified considering big power customers.Then this method provides us such fine resolution that partition and overall load prediction achieves higher accuracy.The above load prediction result is then integrated into a visual over-load warning system.The warning system uses maps as data carriers to present active power supply abilility,differered by render color.Thus,spatial and temoporal features of grid load are intuitively provided for grid planning.