Short-term And Long-term Hybrid Lgorithm For 4D Trajectory Prediction

With the rapid development of civil aviation transport industry, size of air traffic line increase, contradiction between the demand and limit of airspace is increasingly prominent.So, the United States and the European Union propose to build the next generation of air traffic management system, whose key technology is 4D trajectory management. 4D trajectory prediction technology plays a key role in the next generation of air traffic management system, and is the solution to adapt to the airspace in the future that has the characteristic of high density, high traffic flow, small interval. Accurate 4D trajectory prediction method can improve the standard of the ATM automation, improve the efficiency of management, save resources, ensure the safety and unblocked of the airspace.Firstly, the 4D trajectory prediction models and systems are introduced. The prediction models contain the short-term trajectory prediction and long-term prediction models, the application system of 4D trajectory is also introduced in detail.Secondly, aiming at the condition that the airspace is complicated and the aircraft is flexible, a short-term trajectory prediction method is proposed. This method takes use of real-time trajectory data to estimate flight parameters, adopts isometric track model to predict the short-term trajectory. Experimental results show that the method is effective.Thirdly, in the presence of that the effective prediction time of short-term trajectory prediction model is short, a long-term trajectory prediction method is proposed. The method uses cluster analysis method to analysis historical flight data, normalizes the flight time and the position to predict the trajectory. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction, a dynamic correction method is proposed. The experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally, the short-term trajectory prediction method, the long-term trajectory prediction method and dynamic correction method are summarized. Then the follow-up research is prospected.