Study On Risk Distribution And Assessment Of Bird Strike

With the continuous improvement of the global environment, as well as the operation of passenger jet whose inlet is larger and noise is quieter, bird strike has become one of the major threats to the impact of civil aviation security, and for many years ranks the top of incident and accident, these situations have posed a serious challenge for aviation safety, and therefore, for the world’s aviation safety work, how to prevent the bird strike has become the most important task in the current and future.The paper analyzes bird strike incidents briefly. Two types of bird strike incidents are divided, according to incidents’ happen location, one is on the airports, the other is outside the airport boundary. The widely used mathematical methods and models which are applicable for incidents analysis are introduced next. Then bird strike incidents are analyzed by doing the statistics of bird strike incidents during the period of 1990-2012 based on FAA Wildlife Strike Database. And we find that no matter the total strikes, or strikes with damage, the risk to civil aviation aircraft for bird strikes outside the airport boundary is growing faster than the risk for bird strikes in the airports. It challenges the previous opinion which risk to civil aviation aircraft for bird strikes almost in or near the airports. The most important part of the statistics is reason analysis. Detailed reason analysis of bird strike incidents is carried out, prevention measures are given at last according to global real situation, and a model is established which can calculate the probability of route bird strike based on fuzzy mathematics.The paper provides reference to bird strike incidents and bird strike preventions, which has a certain theoretical and practical significance.