Research On Safety Risk Analysis And Safety Evaluation Of Operation And Maintenance In Centralized Control Hydropower Station Group

As a renewable and clean energy, hydropower energy is an important part of energy resources in our country, and it plays an important role in our country's economic and social development. Therefore, the safety of hydropower station's operation and maintenance is an important problem concerned by society and country, especially in recent years, it has become the core issues in studying about hydropower station. Especially with the progress of science and technology, the centralized control hydropower station group emerged, which can save labor cost, increase the operation efficiency and Improve the utilization efficiency of water resources, the operation and maintenance system in hydropower station has become more and more complex, how to analysis and assess the safety risk in operation and maintenance of centralized control hydropower station group is a problems need to be solved. Under this background, after investigate hydropower station groups, this paper applied safety management, system safety engineering and system dynamics and other related theoretical knowledge, and according to the actual situation about risk factors in operation and maintenance, build model and simulated the safe level about operation and maintenance in centralized control hydropower station group. Used the result of the simulation to guide safety work.At first, used the Accident-causing Theory to analysis the system of operation and maintenance in centralized control hydropower station group, It is concluded that human, objects, environment and management are four main factors resulting to accidents in hydropower station. And puts forward the accident-causing model of operation and maintenance in centralized control hydropower station group. Then systematic analysis safety risks in this four aspects, and using the extension AHP analysis method to calculate the weight of every factors. Determined the parameters of the simulation model.Secondly, the safety-level is further analyzed combined with the study the system of operation and maintenance in centralized control hydropower station group through the analysis of system dynamics. Each subsystem model including human, objects,circumstances and management system is researched, established the function relationship and flow chart between the variables, and then simulate the model of the system safety level by using system dynamics software Vensim PLE, which laid the foundation of verifying the accuracy of the model and simulation for cases.Finally, the model is applied to analysis the actual case. The system dynamics model which is established in this paper is applied to the simulation and prediction of the safety level of J centralized control hydropower station group. Through the application of this simulation, it is proved that the model can effectively predict the safety level development trend of operation and maintenance in J centralized control hydropower station group, and helped the management to make decisions. Therefore,it is concluded that system dynamics is practical in simulating and predicting the development trend of safety-level of operation and maintenance in centralized control hydropower station group.