Air Material Stock Requirments Forecasting Of B777 Aircraft Overhaul

Aircraft maintenance enterprise increased the cost and reduced the air material utilization rate and capital turnover caused by a large number of backup aircraft materials.To reduce the problem, approach is research statistic analysis and forecast problem of air material consumption in aircraft overhaul. This research also can reduce the problem of the extension of aircraft overhaul's time on workshop and the cost increase, as well as, provide forecast data to quoted price of aircraft overhaul.First of all, B777-200 aircraft overhaul's data that is collected was analyzed. The results of the analysis is consume of aircraft maintenance in non-routing maintenance can't be ignored, and the HMV3 inspection of maintenance consumption is higher than the HMV2 inspection of material consumption. The plane's on workshop data was analyzed, the results to find the factors of influencing the overhaul of air material consumption.Secondly, aircraft overhaul's data affected by a number of factors, some of which can be factors, some can't get, and aircraft sample size is small. The grey forecasting theory is applied to the forecasting air material of aircraft overhaul. Analysis calculated for each model of a single computational analysis and comparison of multiple models on the same data source. The results showed GM(1,1) gray prediction model, GM(1,N) gray prediction model have good effect in predicting material consumption in aircraft overhaul which GM(1,N) gray prediction model better; grey Versulst prediction model have better predicted results when air material samples in compliance with a non-monotonic swing sequence or saturated S-type sequence; and non-equidistant gray prediction model can't be good for material forecasting of aircraft overhaul.Finally, the system of aircraft overhaul material prediction has carried on the system design based on the grey prediction model as the main body structure. The system has written by VB and Access. The system can achieve forecasting of overhaul aircraft materials which based on grey prediction, and can realize updating overhaul data updates. This system is easy to use, and there is certain generalization performance.