The Application Research Of Flight Emergency Operation Based On Uncertain Theory And CREAM Model

The prosperity and development of worldwide economic brings the development of civil aviation industry, and the manufacture of aircraft is more and more intelligent and the possibility of mechanical failure is becoming more and more small, however, the number of aviation accidents will rise inevitably with the increase of air traffic flow. Human factor errors occupy 80 percent among all the cause of accidents based on the statics of NTSB?IATA, and have become the important hidden danger that affects flight safety. Therefore, it is the most severe challenge in aviation industry to minimize human errors to guarantee flight safety normally and orderly.Complex, highly automated aircraft had decreased operation quota of pilots, however,the pilot emergency operations were playing a crucial role when the abnormal situation occurred. To explore the reliability of pilot emergency operations- the probability of human error, we established the analysis model of flight emergency operation reliability based on uncertain theory(UT) and CREAM model. We can analyze the cognitive behavior of emergency operations, and determine the corresponding failure mode of the task on the basis of elementary event analysis method. Moreover, we can revise basic norm error probability of the CREAM using the uncertainty distribution of uncertainty theory. This article adopts the research method of double line at the same time. One research technical route is that we analyze the accidents and incidents on the basis of CREAM model, so as to determine CPCs,failure mode, etc; Another research technical route is based on the experts' data, using uncertainty theory to process data and determine the pilot emergency operation reliability,and then the two research technical routes are integrated to revise basic probability value of the CREAM failure mode, at the last we reference uncertainty theory to get the pilot emergency operation reliability.Finally, through the analysis of accident and event which have occurred, applying to the built model and quantizing reliability of pilots in the case of emergency operation. At the same time a mechanism of human factor data mining is put forward, and we can be more efficient to evaluate the emergency operation reliability of the pilot.