Research On Load Comprehensive Model And Simulation Adaptability

On the energy shortage,serious environmental pollution and global warming in the world,the emergence of new energy sources such as electric vehicles in the energy crisis to ease and promote the harmonious development of man and the environment has an irreplaceable advantage.Electric vehicles and other new energy access capacity is increasing,which not only affects the structure of the power grid,but also makes the flow of the trend has changed,and further make the distribution network operating characteristics and load characteristics are also affected.In addition,the development of industry-wide load causes the traditional load structure model can not meet the current needs of the power system simulation.Therefore,it is very important to study the whole industry development load modeling under the condition of large-scale access of new energy sources such as electric vehicles.This paper analyzes the current development of load modeling and divides the whole industry load into four kinds of typical industry loads.Based on the Monte Carlo simulation model,the stability index is selected to evaluate the adaptability of the electric vehicle load.And according to the regression analysis method to make the forecast,carried out the load synthesis model and the simulation adaptability research.First of all,through the analysis of the status quo of domestic and foreign research,it is found that the existing statistical model of the industrial load structure value can not meet the demand of the system simulation with varied operation modes.There are many simulation results,not considering the large-scale electric vehicle access,And the accuracy of the simulation results,the necessity and urgency of this research are put forward.Secondly,through the analysis of the load structure model,we establish the modeling scheme adopted in this paper:(1)Divide the load into the industry,analyze the time distribution characteristics of the load,establish the normal probability distribution model according to the sampling statistical data,(2)Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is used to simulate the time series load of each industry in 24 periods of time,and the time series load time series model(3)According to the load structure value of each industry,the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the time series model of the load structure of the whole industry;(4)To establish the load time series probability model of the new energy load electric vehicle;(5)A Comprehensive Model of Automobile Industry Load.Then,the simulation model is established to estimate the adaptability of the model.The main results are as follows:(1)The simulation analysis of the stability of the integrated load model;(2)According to the simulation results of different load structure and load equivalentmethods,the adaptability evaluation index based on the radar map theory is proposed;Stability simulation results,expand the regression analysis,select the optimal regression equation as a simulation of adaptive prediction model.Finally,the practical application scenarios of the Northeast Power Grid are established,and the whole industry load model is established according to the actual data.The simulation results show the accuracy and feasibility of the model.