Studying On Household Electrical Load Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

With the advance of technology and the development of the society,the living standards of Chinese households raising continually.More and more household appliances come into people's lives,which makes household electricity consumption become an important part of the whole society power structure.Building an effective prediction model of household electricity which considers residents behavior and family environment can not only provide reference for the electric power department to implement reasonable power planning,but also provide reference for the families to formulate effective energy saving and emission reduction measures.In addition,the establishment of effective prediction model for household electricity consumption is conducive to the development of smart power grid and electric vehicle access.An effective prediction of household energy consumption is a very complex task dun to the use of electrical appliances is highly relevant to the lifestyle of the residents and the environment of family,which is not easy to be precisely defined.This paper takes various factors which can affect the electricity consumption of residents into consideration,and makes a detailed analysis from the data source of the effective prediction model of household electricity consumption to the model construction.The article studies the switch model and electrical model of household appliances,introducing the MCMC algorithm into the prediction of household power consumption.This paper takes various factors such as the lifestyle of the residents and the environment of the family which can affect the electricity consumption of residents into consideration account,proposing a household load effective prediction model based on Monte Carlo simulation.The main research work can be divided into four parts:?Making field statistics and summarizing the factors which can affect residents' use of electricity,we can get some important statistics about residents' behavior,household profiles and household appliances.Those statistics can provide the basic data of household appliances' switch model to construct household load forecasting model.?The characteristics of load power and current are analyzed,which can provide the basic data of household appliances' electrical model to construct household load forecasting model.?The article uses a bottom-up approach to model household power consumption,combining the electrical model and switch model of the household appliances.?We has achieve the household power load prediction model through programming.In addition,the electricity data of single-family households,multi-family households and communities are measured.Finally,we compare and analyze the results.