Safety Research On The Transportation Of Bulk Chemicals Based On Catastrophe Theory

As to dangerous chemicals transportation,an increasing number of dangerous chemical goods have been gradually becoming an indispensable part to the national economic development.However,the nature of the dangerous chemicals increases the risks to the catastrophe of the transportation and the probability of transportation accidents.Therefore,to study the characteristics of the system in the process of sea transportation can effectively reduce the occurrence of accidents,and it is of great significance to improve the safety of chemicals transportation.For the catastrophe of the Maritime Dangerous Chemicals Transportation System(MDCTS),the Catastrophe Theory is put forward to study the safety of the MDCTS.The catastrophe of the system is classified into two types which are caused by "human factors" and "material factors" respectively from view of the"human-machine-environment engineering" concept.After studying the "human factors" and the "material factors",the cusp catastrophe model is established,and the mechanism diagram of accidents causes is sketched out,also,the catastrophe mechanism,that is the principle of accident causes,is expounded.Considering the complexity of MDCTS,the "human" catastrophe factors are subdivided into "crew" factors and "management" factors;the "material" catastrophe factors are subdivided into "cargo" factors,"environment" factors and "ship" factors.Based on the Catastrophe Theory,the safety evaluation index system of MDCTS is built which lays a foundation for the safety assessment of the MDCTS.In order to improve the objectivity of the evaluation results,and avoid the influence of subjective weights,the catastrophe progression method is adopted to evaluate the safety of the MDCTS and the safety assessment criteria under the Catastrophe Theory is developed based on the existing safety grades of the MDCTS.Finally,the accuracy of the method based on the Catastrophe Theory is verified by a real ship.The safety status of the MDCTS at different moments is evaluated.The corresponding measures are proposed through the analysis of the evaluation results and data simulation.The results show that the theory of Catastrophe Theory can explain the mechanism of the accident of transportation system,and can predict the safety status.The research results have enriched the research content of the system security in the process of the transportation of dangerous chemicals in the sea,which provides a new idea for the study of the safety of the MDCTS.