Study On The Cause Evolution Of Construction Collapse Accident Based On Catastrophe Theory

At present,China’s construction industry is developing rapidly with the improvement of the national economy.Due to the characteristics of the construction industry itself,such as long operation cycle,high construction intensity and poor construction environment,the frequency of construction accidents has been in the forefront of safety production accidents,and the safety situation of the whole construction industry is not optimistic.According to relevant statistics,collapse accident,as a type of high-hazard accident,causes high casualties and social and economic losses every year.How to effectively avoid the occurrence of collapse accident is an urgent problem to be solved.Therefore,this paper takes the collapse accident as the research object,comprehensively identifies the cause factors of the collapse accident and analyzes the relationship between the factors.On this basis,the evolutionary mechanism of the cause factors and the countermeasures are studied,which provides a new idea for the prevention of the collapse accident.Firstly,this paper establishes a collapse accident cause system containing 34 factors from four aspects of human,material,environment and management,and makes a specific analysis of these factors.Then,through reading 249 collapse accident reports collected,the cause factors were extracted one by one,and the text samples of accident reports were converted into structured data,and the frequency analysis of the cause factors was conducted.On this basis,the coupling degree model of the cause factors of collapse accident was established,and the coupling relationship between the cause factors was quantified by the mutation fuzzy membership function.Then build the collapse of the cusp catastrophe model,and the change process of collapse accident was described by using safety rheology and mutation theory,with the property of the cusp catastrophe model geometry,from stability,risk,catastrophe dynamically analyzed in three aspects:the evolution mechanism of the collapse accident cause factor and operational system to collapse in the borders and determine the system safety state of transformation.Finally,a typical collapse accident case is selected and the data is simulated to verify the feasibility of the proposed method,and the prevention measures,control measures and emergency measures are proposed for the evolution process of the collapse accident,which provides the thoughts of collapse accident prevention for relevant departments.The results show that:(1)There are certain rules in the area,month,working day and specific time periods of collapse accidents in China;(2)In collapse accidents,management factors and human factors have the highest frequency and need to be controlled and controlled.There is a strong coupling between the cause factors of collapse accidents,and the coupling degree is 0.953.(3)When the two control variables of the system have sudden jump and intersect with the bifurcation set,the system is likely to have sudden change and collapse,and the severity of the accident is related to the sudden jump value of the control variables;(4)The probability of collapse accident can be reduced by changing the state of control variables,and manual intervention can be carried out in advance to reduce the sudden jump value and prevent the deterioration of the accident.