Study On Power Supply Capability Of Distribution Network Based On Load Combination Forecasting And Its Application

Electric power is one of the important factors to promote economic development.With the rapid development of economy,the power load in our country presents an increasing trend.In recent years,many provinces and cities will meet the peak load each summer and the power rationing occurs frequently.Although at the beginning of planning and design of the distribution network,the design of distribution network is carried out with a higher capacity to load ratio in our country,the phenomenon of load loss will still occur during the peak load period.In order to ensure the development of economy and people's normal life,the research on the power supply capability of distribution network is becoming more and more important.The power supply capability of distribution network is an important index to reflect the safe and reliable operation of distribution network.It can evaluate the maximum load that can be supplied by the existing network structure.Through the research on the power supply capability of the distribution network,the potential of power supply is fully exploited,which plays an important role in the planning of the distribution network as well as the safe and reliable economic operation.The main contents of this paper are as follows:First,in order to simulate the law of the actual load more accurately,this paper proposes a load combination forecasting method based on particle swarm optimization.Compared with the single prediction,the combination forecasting has more comprehensive consideration of multiple factors,the prediction results are more accurate.In order to solve the problem that the ant colony algorithm is easy to stall and fall into the local optimal solution,the ant colony algorithm's pheromone adjustment mechanism is improved according to the searching situation of the ant colony algorithm,and the adaptive dynamic adjustment of pheromone is realized.The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and superior.The improved particle swarm ant colony algorithm is proposed by combining particle swarm optimization with ant colony optimization.The method is applied to solve the weight of load forecasting in power system,and the effectiveness of the method is proved by an example.Then,the combination forecasting model based on particle swarm ant colony optimization algorithm is applied to the calculation of power supply capability.The combination forecasting method based on particle swarm ant colony optimization algorithm is used to determine the combined forecasting model of each load point in the distribution network.The model of the load forecasting model of the all load points in the system is superimposed,and the superimposed model of all the load points is used as the growth model of the load to establish the power supply capability calculation model of the distribution network.The power flow calculation is carried out by using the repeated power flow method.The critical point satisfying the accuracy is obtained,and the critical point corresponds to the maximum power supply capability of the distribution network.Finally,the power supply capability calculation method is applied to the actual distribution network in a certain area,and the maximum power supply capability of the distribution network in the area is calculated,which proves the validity of the model and algorithm mentioned in this paper.