The Risk Assessment Of Thermal Power Plant Technical Transformation Project Based On BP Neural Network

The power industry is a basic industry which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood.Because of China's large population,the national economy size is big.China is not only a large energy producing countries,but also a large energy consumers.In recent years,although our energies such as hydroelectric power,nuclear power have got rapid development,but at present the thermal power still has a significant market share in the existing structure of power generation industry in our country.With increasing pressure of the environmental protection and the urgent needs of the sustainable development of human society,the problem of applying new technology and new equipment to make a technical renovation in the thermal power enterprises of our country is becoming more and more prominent.The technical innovation of the thermal power enterprise is a complicated systems engineering,which has many risks.Therefore,how to identify,evaluate and manage the risk of the technological upgrading projects of thermal power enterprise is a very worth studying topic.ZX power plant was taken as the research object and the theory and methods of risk assessment was used by the thesis to carry out the typical revamping project,steam turbine,to study and evaluate the risk.It aimed to provide a reference for risk management of the project.Firstly,according to the risk identification process,the method of checklisthe was applied by the thesis to carry out the basic risk analysis.Based on this,15 secondary index was selected by the thesis as evaluation index to construct the evaluation index system;Secondly,based on the BP neural network theory,the BP neural network evaluation model which included the momentum factor and the function of the toolkit neural network evaluation model by applying the mathematical software MATLAB was established.And the hidden layer nodes was analyzed and also the best hidden layer nodes was selected by the thesis.Based on the training and testing of the above two models,batch training methods was chosen by me because of the high accuracy of the batch training way.Finally,after the expert of the steam turbine technical transformation scoring data and inputting it to the training of the BP neural network with momentum factor to simulate the batch training model,through the simulation analysis,it was concluded that the risk of the steam turbine technological upgrading projects was intermediate.It provided reference for policy makers and got the methods of preventing risk and monitoring risk.It provided the guarantee for the technical transformation of the ZX power plant.