Assessment On The Water Risks In Provincial Scale In China

Water resources as the basic resources for social and economic development are priceless,unique and irreplaceable.The problem of water resources is becoming more and more prominent,which is the main challenge for the survival and development of human beings in the future.The community began to play close attention to water risks.The reason why water resources management is now receiving so much attention is that water risks in China are widespread and might bring overall risks for development.How to deal the relationship with water risks and development is a big problem for government,people and social sectors.Water risks are defined as water-related risks caused by both natural factors and human activities,including water shortage risks,pollution risks,disaster risks,ecology risks,and regulation risks.In this paper,we constructed water risks assessment system in provincial scale,considering three aspects of pressure,sensibility and adaptability.The system are considered to be chosen to access the level water risks,the following indicators involve the population,resources,economy,environmental and government capacity.Then we used decision analysis model which based on AHP and Entropy methods to calculate the comprehensive weight.Taking 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2013 as the research objects,the water risks in each region during 2000 to 2013 were evaluated using Secondary Fuzzy Pattern Recognition model.Firstly,The overall level of water risks in China is declining,the high value,the medium-high value and the low value risks areas are closed to the median risks.During the sample period,the average value of China's water risks dropped from 0.70 to 0.61,in general,the water risks showed a slight upward trend,the value of the water level increased from the year of to the end of the past 0.71,and the water risks level gradually decreased to 0.61.Secondly,From the internal system risks,pressure risks has been in a rising state.China has great water pressure and maybe will continue rising in the future.Under the condition of the current technology,the situation of water risks are grim.Sensitivity risks keep in low levels and little change of the three subsystems,so we can get that the ability of resisting risks in each region are gradually increasing;Adaptive risks has steadily declined,and the ability to adapt risks are increasing.Thirdly,From the spatial dimensions,we used natural breaks(Jenks)divide water risk into five levels,which are 0-0.39,0.39-0.68,0.68-0.81,0.71-0.72,0.72-0.76.The sources of risks evolved into complex and they have different risks sources and space distribution.We need formulate specific policies for each provinces according to different risk sources,so we can know how to manage Chinese water risks,and Chinese water risks could be reduced if we take effective measures.Fourthly,driving by screen,the relationship between water risks and main factors can be distinguished by stata software,the factors affecting the Chinese water risks level including per capita domestic water consumption,the percent of urban and rural Engel coefficient,high risk industry GDP contribution rate,per capita environmental governance investment and R&D expenditure accounted for the proportion of GDP,according to these indicators,we can do something such as policy making to cut the of level water risks.