| With the continuous progress of energy transformation,renewable energy,represented by wind and solar energy,is gradually replacing traditional fossil energy and becoming an important choice for healthy and sustainable development.China has abundant renewable energy resources,and its power generation has a broad prospect which is the main way of renewable energy utilization.However,with the rapid development of renewable energy development,problems such as more focus on construction rather than consumption,unbalanced and inadequate development at provincial level,which limit the leapfrog development of renewable energy.Transmission grid projects,especially ultra-high voltage(UHV)projects,are important infrastructure support for promoting the optimal allocation and the large-scale,high-proportion,high-quality and market-oriented development of renewable energy.The 14th Five-Year Plan period is a key period to promote China's clean,low-carbon and green energy transformation.China raised a new contribution target and long-term vision for addressing climate change in 2020,that China will strive to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060.Facing the new situation,accelerating energy reform,transforming energy production mode with new energy as the leading role,energy consumption mode with electricity as core,and energy allocation mode with large grid interconnection will strongly promote the construction of a new type of power system with new energy as the main body,and implement the high-quality development strategy.Facing the development requirements of new goals,it is vital to explore and realize the overall improvement of renewable energy consumption level.Based on the time-series spatial modeling of transmission grid projects,this dissertation takes the renewable energy dataset of 31 provinces of China during 2015-2019 and carries out the "pattern,mechanism and simulation" research.The dissertation identifies and evaluates the spatial-temporal pattern characteristics and evolution trend of renewable energy consumption at provincial level in China quantitatively.The spatial driving mechanism and evolution simulation are discussed.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The spatial weight matrix model of Chinese trans-provincial and trans-regional transmission grid is constructed.The development proccess and power transmission characteristics of regional power grids and UHV projects were systematically analyzed.Based on the construction and operation time-series data of grid projects,the spatial weight matrixes of transmission grid projects(WE)from 2015 to 2019 were established to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of its connectivity,and providing a basic tool for subsequent provincial economic analysis.(2)The spatial-temporal pattern characteristics of renewable energy development in China are analyzed.Using spatial econometric tools,the spatial-temporal distribution and matching characteristics of renewable energy resource endowment,installed capacity and electricity consumption in 31 Chinese provinces were identified.The distribution of the pattern moved to southeast,the renewable energy generation showed diffusion trend,while the consumption showed agglomeration trend.Based on the WE,the evolution of spatial heterogeneity and dependence of renewable energy consumption among provinces were studied.The consumption pattern evolved from single-core polarization to multi-pole diffusion,and the agglomeration area spread from most of Northern China to Northwest and Northeast China.In the view of grid connectivity,the dynamic evolution and transfer path probability of each agglomeration type of renewable energy consumption are discussed.There are 6 transformation relationships and 8 transformation paths among 4 agglomeration types of renewable energy consumption,and the conversion probabilities are significantly different.The polarization and spillover effects of regional growth poles depend on the relationship between power grid projects,which plays a key role in transformation process.(3)A driving model for influencing factors of provincial renewable energy consumption based on transmission grid projects is established.Through literature review and data collection,dissertation identified and analyzed 8 influencing factors from consumption environment,infrastructure,energy structure and policy 4 dimensions.Based on spatial correlation of WE,dissertation takes spatial panel data of 31 provinces from 2015 to 2019 to build a driving mechanism model from the perspectives of national total sample,regional sample and stage sample,and measured the direct and indirect effects of each factor quantitatively on the provincial consumption level of renewable energy.The mechanism and spatial-temporal characteristics of endogenous and exogenous dynamics among provinces were analyzed.The results show that under the connection of transmission grid projects,the economic level,power consumption growth potential and market transaction have well spillover effect among provinces,and can gradually play a spillover effect in consumption improvement level.(4)A dynamic evolution simulation study on renewable energy consumption among provinces is carried out.Based on the pattern characteristics,spatial effect rules.spatial agglomeration types and its transfer probability of provincial renewable energy consumption under grid projects,two scenarios of natural development and carbon policy were set to study the evolution characteristics of provincial renewable energy consumption characteristics under different policy scenarios to 2025 and 2030.Based on CLUE-S model,the transfer process of renewable energy consumption types of each province was simulated.Under two scenarios,the predominant evolution type was dominant from high-value types to low-value types.However,the type transformation was more active,and the evolution of low-value types started earlier under carbon policy scenario.In summary,the layout of transmission grid projects would extend to central and eastern China along the direction of“Inner Mongolia-Northern" and "Northwest-Central”,optimizing the spillover effect of existing areas with high consumption,and cultivating and activating the potential growth poles will promote and stimulate the promotion of the consumption level of renewable energy.The established model provides a reliable the oretical method and decision-making tool for rational planning of provincial renewable energy consumption policy.Based on the spatial modeling of inter-provincial connection of transmission grid projects,the dissertation carries out "pattern,mechanism and simulation" research on the provincial development and utilization of renewable energy from a systematic and spatial-temporal economic view,which is an innovation and supplement to the theoretical system and practical application in energy field.The research results provide policy suggestions and research tools for the development and utilization of renewable energy from the perspective of transmission grid projects and provinces'planning,and provide theoretical and empirical reference for the formulation of strategic policies for the development and utilization of renewable energy and the planning and layout of power transmission grid projects. |
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