Design And Implementation Of Urban Mass Transit Passenger Flow Forecast System

Under circumstance of road congestion and traffic chaos generally appearing in large and medium-sized cities,the urban rial with the advantages of large conveying capacity,safe and reliable,punctual and fast,energy saving and environmental protection,has been favored by the public,stand out in the city public transit system and get rapid development,thus becomes the main force of solving the problems of urban congestion and other traffic issues.With the continuous progress of urbanization,urban rail transit planning and operation organization work is numerous in project,complex in logic,and heavy in workload.At present,urban rail transit passenger volume forecasting work is seriously insufficient,mainly by artificial,cannot provide urban rail transit system with real-time,safe and reliable decision support,leading to higher costs.It is essential to speed up the pace of information of urban rail transmit passenger volume analysis,replace the mode of manual operation,standardize the operation process,so as to help users complete their work in a simple,fast and accurate way and improve work efficiency and economic benefit.This paper carries on the research work mainly towards the urban trail transit passenger volume forecasting.Firstly,it analyzes the advantages of urban rail transit compared with other modes of transportation,studies the factors that affect passenger flow,analyzes the time and spatial distribution characteristics of urban rail transit,and lay the foundation for the follow-up study of urban rail transit passenger volume forecasting.Secondly,on the basis of studying the four-stage method of traditional urban rail transit passenger volume forecasting,the paper analyzes the shortcomings of travel generation and travel distribution.The traditional travel generation prediction method does not take into consideration the interaction between the traffic area and the influence of the traffic service level on the traffic volume,thus lack of prediction accuracy.A new thought of travel generation forecasting is put forward,and a new model is established by studying the influencing factors of travel generation.We divide the traffic district according to the land using nature,calculate the travel generation of different function of land use in the study area separately,figure their sum up and get the total traffic.The traditional travel distribution forecasting method does not take into account internal travel of traffic area,based on this,a new distribution model is proposed,which predicts the establishment of the model of travel within the traffic area and travel between the traffic area respectively and serve as a good solution to the problem of traditional methods.Then we analyze the advantages of the new travel generation forecasting model through examples.The new model is not only easy to understand,easy to calculate,in line with the reality,but also has the advantages of strong compatibility,so it has very high research value.Then,we achieve the urban rail transit passenger volume forecasting and Statistical analysis system design according to the study of the travel generation and travel distribution model,program based on VC++6.0 and MFC library to achieve urban rail transit passenger volume forecasting function and the forecast results were analyzed,whose results are helpful to make decisions on the investment construction scale of urban rail transit.At last,the content of this paper is summarized and the future research work is forecasted.