Study On Transfer Model Of Urban Commuting Mode Based On Travelers’ Utility

The research of commuting mode which is based on the decision making of commuter travel strives to optimize the commute travel structure,and to improve the level of urban transport service and the traffic congestion in the morning and evening rush hours continuously by means of qualitative and quantitative research of commute travel behavior.It could help to provide convenient,comfortable,efficient and safe transportation service,thus realize the sustainable development of urban traffic.This paper based on the urban commute behavior has mainly done some work as follows.(1)On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign travel behavior research,this paper summarizes the research methods and theories,and analyzes the research results and existing problems in this field both at home and abroad.(2)The paper mainly expounds and analyzes the research methods of the travel behavior based on disaggregate model and trip chain theory.The travel behavior based on disaggregate model includes utility theory,Probit model and Logit model.The travel behavior based on trip chain theory includes time characteristics,spatial characteristics,structural characteristics and commute mode.The influencing factors of commuters’ travel include the macroscopic level and microscopic level.(3)Based on the analysis of urban commuters’ travel characteristics,this paper puts forward the idea of taking the commuters’ characteristics and the commuters’ preference into consideration separately.In the process of analyzing the influencing factors of commuters’ travel,it is analyzed from three aspects: the characteristics of travelers,travel mode and traffic mode in the traditional methods.While in this paper,the commuters’ preference is added into the study of influencing factors of commute travel,thus the differences in choosing commute mode brought by the commuters’ preference are analyzed from the aspects of economic preference,efficient preference,comfort preference,environmental preference and punctual preference.(4)In this paper,the Multionmial Logit models of commuters’ characteristics and commuters’ preference based on the theory of travelers’ utility includes multiple commute modes.Compared with the traditional method in which the multi-class variables are established in the same Logit model,the Multionmial Logit models for multi-class variables established in this paper make the quantitative and qualitative research of commute travel clearer and more intuitive.The study of the Multionmial Logit model of commuters’ characteristics shows that the transformation from the car to the green commute modes can be restrained by the increase of the average monthly income per household and educational status of the commuters and by the commuters’ possession of cars.The study of the Multionmial Logit of commuters’ preference shows that the efficient and punctual preference of the commuters can restrain the transformation to green commute modes.However,the environmental preference of the commuters can promote the transformation.(5)The transfer model of commute mode based on the structural equation models makes assumptions about the factor structure by utilizing the research conclusion of the transfer model of commute mode based on the Logit model.And the hypothesis is validated from the aspects of formulation,identification,estimation,evaluation and modification.The results of the study show that there are multi-level associations among commuters’ characteristics,commuters’ preference and commute travel characteristics.The study shows that the characteristics of the commuters don’t influence the transformation of commute modes directly,but through influence the preferences of the commuters and then influence the transformation of the commute modes.The Transfer model based on Logit model is simple,while the transformation model based on Structural Equation Modeling is complex.And the Structural Equation Modeling can further analyze the multiple direct and indirect effects among the variables.The paper explores the practical application and comparative analysis of the models proposed in order to promote the further research on the theory,method and application of urban commute behavior.